The US Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting next month to decide on the monetary policy. The decision on interest rate will be announced by the US Fed chair Powell on December 10.
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, shows that as of November 11, 30% expect no change, 68% predict a 25bp rate cut, while 2% expect a rate cut of 50 bps by the US Fed rate cut in December. The odds for a ‘no change’ in rates have increased over the previous day.
Recently, Intercontinental Exchange, a leading global provider of technology and data, announced a strategic investment in Polymarket, the prediction market and information platform tracking event probabilities across markets, politics, sport, and culture.
Google Finance also announced recently that it has integrated prediction market data from leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi directly into its search results. In a statement, Google Finance informed, “adding support for prediction markets data from Kalshi and Polymarket, so you can ask questions about future market events and harness the wisdom of the crowds.”
CME Group’s FedWatch tool is widely used by market observers to gauge the likelihood of the US Fed changing the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings.
FedWatch tracks the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.
As of Tuesday, CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows 63.6% chances for a 25bps rate cut, while the odds for rates to remain constant in the range 3.75-4% are 36.4%.
A rate cut is not yet certain, though. In a news conference following the FOMC’s most recent meeting last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said future rate cuts may not be guaranteed.
Powell also pointed out that the 12-member panel that votes on rate changes is split on whether to lower rates to protect the labor market or keep them higher for longer to fight inflation.
Fed officials have less information to rely on when determining which issue needs to be addressed more urgently—inflation or the labor market—because the US government was shut down.
The US shutdown appears to be resolved in a few days. How new statistics on the economy, labor, and employment arrive will influence market expectations from the US Fed. The December FOMC meeting, therefore, will be an interesting event for how the markets will shape up in 2026.
