Canada Study permit approvals are likely to fall by 45% in 2024, compared to 2023. In a study conducted by ApplyBoard, the total number of study permits processed is set to drop by 35% year-over-year and Canada is presently on track to approve only 280,000 total study permits for the full year 2024.

The projected 280,000 approvals would represent a 45% drop from 2023, outpacing IRCC’s intended reduction by ten percentage points. This would also be the lowest number of study permit approvals in a non-pandemic year since 2019.

International students no longer seem to prefer Canada as a study destination. According to ApplyBoard, the number of new overseas students at Canadian schools will likely fall by 60% by 2024.

According to the study, From January through October 2024, the Canadian student visa approval rate was around 50%. Based on this approval rate, ApplyBoard projects that the full-year number of approvals will decline by 45% year-over-year, resulting in a maximum of 280,000 approvals across all study levels (including K-12 and postgraduate).

The number of approvals for capped study levels fell by 60% in Jan–Oct 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, while cap-exempt approvals dropped by 27%.

Visa approvals for major student populations such as India, Nigeria, and Nepal dropped by over 50% through the first ten months of 2024. Students from India, Nigeria, and the Philippines, who collectively accounted for more than half (54%) of all study permit approvals through the first ten months of 2023, only represented 44% of all approvals through the same period in 2024.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship (IRCC) set Canada’s 2024 international student caps based on a 35% reduction compared to 2023. After further adjustments were made for proportional allocation to each province and territory, final targets of 552,095 study permit applications and 291,914 study permit approvals for capped study levels were set.

Going forward, Canada has finalized provincial and territorial allocations for international student study permits in 2025, with IRCC planning to issue 437,000 permits, a 10% decrease from 2024’s cap.

However, even in the early days of the caps, declining student interest surpassed government expectations. As that decreased interest continued throughout the year, IRCC is presently on track to approve only 280,000 total study permits for the full year 2024.

This significant drop was felt across all destination provinces, but Ontario and Nova Scotia have experienced the largest impact.

ApplyBoard in the study claims that once the full-year data for 2024 is made available, the study approval rates will be significantly lower than the IRCC’s target.

When Canada’s 2024 caps were introduced, Minister Miller initially detailed that a 60% study permit approval rate was used for all cap calculations. Later, when additional ‘top-up’ modifications were made to encourage student distribution across all provinces, this rate was shifted down to 53%.

However, even taking this reduced 53% approval rate into account, study permit approval rates are highly unlikely to hit IRCC’s target by the end of the year. ApplyBoard expects the average study permit approval rate will fall below 50% for full year 2024, dropping around four percentage points below IRCC estimates.