For months, headlines painted a picture of a resilient American labour market. But beneath the surface, a new revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just made the cracks visible.
On Tuesday, the BLS published a jarring update: the US economy likely added 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12 months through March 2025.
The revelation creates a new set of doubts about the strength of the post-pandemic recovery and suggests that hiring had already begun to stall before President Donald Trump’s latest wave of tariffs and trade tensions took full effect.
The downgrade is part of the BLS’s annual benchmark revision. While revisions are routine, the magnitude of this year’s adjustment has raised eyebrows.
Expectations from economists
Economists had anticipated a downward revision, though not this steep. Many projected a drop between 400,000 and 1 million jobs. The previous year’s estimate, covering the 12 months through March 2024, was also revised downward, by 598,000 jobs.
The official final benchmark revision will be published in February alongside the January 2026 jobs report. That final count will be the foundation for revised monthly payroll figures before and after March 2025.
Impact of Trump tariffs
The revision comes at a time when job growth is already slowing. Just last week, government data showed that job creation nearly stalled in August and that the economy shed jobs in June for the first time in more than four years.
The labour market is contending with multiple headwinds: uncertainty stemming from aggressive trade policy, particularly the Trump administration’s renewed tariffs on imports; a tightening immigration crackdown that has strained labour supply; and a growing business shift toward automation and artificial intelligence, which is tempering demand for workers.
Political controversies around job data
Last month, following sharp downward revisions to May and June’s job figures, a combined 258,000-job drop, President Trump publicly fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of manipulating the data.
Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a conservative economist and vocal critic of the BLS, to replace her. Antoni has previously argued for suspending the monthly employment report altogether.
In response, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) issued a rare statement defending the agency, urging policymakers, businesses, and economists to “stand with BLS and ensure that America’s statistics remain accurate, independent, and trusted worldwide”.