All eyes will be on the US inflation numbers today. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will be releasing the August 2025 CPI data on September 11, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
In the backdrop of the July inflation data, today’s US CPI data will be keenly watched by the market and industry experts.
In July, the annual US CPI remained steady at 2.7% compared to June numbers. On a monthly basis, it showed a decline from 0.3% to 0.2%. However, the core inflation index, which tracks all items less food and energy, rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months, higher than June’s 3% rise. On a monthly basis, the Core inflation increased to 0.3 percent in July, up from 0.2 percent in June.
The headline and core producer prices in the US unexpectedly fell in August and were revised lower last month. After a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July, and well below expectations of a 0.3% increase, producer prices in the United States unexpectedly decreased 0.1% mom in August 2025. Producer prices increased 2.6% year over year, below predictions of 3.3% and a downwardly revised 3.1% rate in July.
US CPI Data for August
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in August, based on FactSet consensus estimates. Core CPI, excluding food and fuel, is projected to rise by 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually.
Goldman Sachs economists forecast that August’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase by 0.36%, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.30%, which would result in a year-over-year rate of 3.13%.
The US CPI data for August holds significant importance as the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are scheduled to meet on September 16-17 to determine interest rates. The decision on whether Federal Reserve Chair Powell will implement a rate cut or maintain the current rate status will be announced on Wednesday, September 17.
Inflation Takes a Backseat
US Fed and Powell will be more concerned about the weakness in the job market rather than inflation.
US inflation remains elevated, significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with the complete impact of tariffs on goods prices not yet evident.
Still, a case is being made for a rate cut announcement by Powell on September 17, driven by job market weakness rather than inflation. The September FOMC meeting also holds significance as the meeting is associated with the release of a Summary of Economic Projections. What it will reveal is the ‘dot plot’ showing by how much and how many rate cuts can be expected by the US Fed.
A Labor Department jobs report reveals that US employers added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially stated in the year ending March 2025. This adjustment indicates that nearly one million jobs previously reported did not actually materialize.
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.
The department also reported that the economy generated only 22,000 jobs in August. Employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported.
U.S. job growth decelerated in August, showing an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, marking a near four-year peak. This data suggests a deteriorating labor market, which increases the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction during the current month.