The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in late October will be released today. The Federal Open Market Committee’s last monetary policy meeting was held on October 28-29, when, for the second time this year, the fed funds rate was cut by 25 basis points to 3.75-4%.
Market participants will be closely watching the minutes of the October FOMC meeting for clues regarding the potential rate cut in December. The next US Fed FOMC meeting will be held on December 9-10, where a Summary of Economic Projections, along with the ‘dot plot’ will also be released.
The October FOMC meeting occurred during a 43-day US government shutdown that delayed the release of crucial economic data by US agencies. Will the Fed officials cite a lack of data to delay a rate cut in December remains to be seen.
During the previous FOMC press conference, Powell stated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed. He mentioned a divergence of opinions within the FOMC regarding the December decision, with an increasing sentiment suggesting a wait-and-see approach rather than an immediate cut.
The US CPI data for September, which saw a delayed release on October 24, came in lower than expected, and the core CPI has also risen less than expected.
But the October US CPI data may not be released at all. The White House officials have indicated that the inflation data skipped during the shutdown may be permanently lost, suggesting that the October data is unlikely to be released. The US Fed FOMC meeting in December is expected to occur without an evaluation of inflation numbers.
However, there is a likelihood of job data arriving this week. The Labor Department will release its numbers on September hiring and unemployment on Thursday, November 20.
The Labor Department has not released its weekly unemployment benefits report for seven weeks, which serves as an early indicator of labor market trends. However, initial jobless claims in the US totaled 232,000 on the week ending October 18th, remaining firmly above the averages from the period since the end of the second quarter.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 28-29 will be published on November 19 at 2:00 p.m ET.
