Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for the last time before his term as the US Federal Reserve chair ends next year in May.
The Fed Chief Powell is set to deliver a speech on Wednesday at 10 am EDT, which is 2:00 pm GMT. The Powell’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium speech can be watched on the YouTube channel of the Kansas City Fed.
“Those waiting for clarity, though, are likely to end up disappointed today, with Fed Chair Powell set to keep his options as open as possible in remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
With a month still to run until the September FOMC, during which time we’ll receive both the August jobs and CPI/PPI reports, as well as with uncertainty remaining elevated, and inflation risks biased to the upside, there is little-to-no benefit in Powell pre-committing to any action later on today,” says Michael Brown Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
Powell at Jackson Hole
All eyes will be on Powell when he speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 21. After the 50bps rate cut in December 2024, the US Fed has kept the rates unchanged.
Since then, Powell and the FOMC members have not yielded to the pressure of cutting rates put forth by the White House and President Trump himself.
Powell has often reiterated that Trump tariffs could be inflationary and hence a pause is required before further rate cuts can be initiated.
Even though inflation has come down considerably, but it remains sticky and not within the Fed’s target range.
However, something else is cracking up in the economy. July payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, missing forecasts of 100,000. More damaging were the revisions: more than 250,000 positions were erased from May and June totals, leaving those months essentially flat. The unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.2%.
“Nobody should expect Powell to give Wall Street a green light at Jackson Hole,” says Nigel Green, CEO deVere Group.
“He’ll hedge, he will stress the importance of upcoming data, and he will underline that the committee is not united. But the truth is that the jobs market has delivered the Fed the evidence it needs. The Fed cannot ignore that without damaging its credibility,” adds Green.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world.
The annual event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern.
The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2025 event will be held August 21-23. This year’s theme is ‘Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.’
Powell will be presenting the paper on Economic Outlook and Framework Review.
House View
Any signal of a rate cut by Powell could unleash bullish sentiments in the markets. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are already at record highs, thanks to the performance of tech stocks.
However, Powell may just stop short of sending any signal to the market. Why? The next FOMC meeting is on September 16-17. And, before that, there is a series of hard economic data that can change the scenario.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report for July will be published on August 29, 2025. Thereafter, the Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on September 5 and the US CPI data for August arrives on September 11.
With so much data yet to come in, Powell will not risk indicating a rate cut during his Jackson Hole speech today. Powell has stated unequivocally, including in his testimony, that he will base his decision to lower interest rates on incoming economic data.
Powell may only provide a case scenario and will not sound as dovish as the market expects. The September rate cut may still be on the cards but a confirmation from Powell may be lacking.