How have the US tariffs impacted India’s shrimp industry? The shrimp exports to the US registered muted 5% growth but overall the exports grew 18% year-on-year. This is because India has broadened the scope of exports to several other countries including China. However, a recent CareEdge report indicated that despite this, shrimp exports are set to see double-digit decline in H2.
In a bid to soften the blow to shrimp exports amid steep US Tariff, , India broadened its reach to other key markets. It is now exporting to markets like China, Vietnam, Belgium, Russia, and other destinations.
According to a new report by CareEdge Ratings, non-US markets contributed nearly 86% of the incremental export gains during the April–August period. However, despite the clear market shift, analysts estimate the industry’s performance to soften by 10–12% in H2FY26. Here’s why.
Exports rise 18% despite US headwinds
According to the CareEdge report, India’s shrimp exports grew 18% year-on-year(YoY) to $2.43 billion in 5MFY26, supported by an 11% rise in shipment volumes. The growth came even as exports to the US—traditionally India’s biggest shrimp market—remained muted due to steep tariff hikes.
CareEdge noted that exporters increased shipments in the early months to the US to avoid higher duties that took effect from August 27. However, exports began slowing soon after. Shipments to the US dropped 35% in August compared to July, signalling a sharper decline in the second half of the year.
Non-US markets fuel 30% jump in shrimp exports
The strong export performance was largely driven by non-US destinations, where values rose 30% to $1.38 billion. China led this growth with a 16% increase, while Vietnam and Belgium posted a sharp rise in demand, with export values doubling for both countries. The report highlighted that Vietnam is playing a bigger role as a re-export hub, while Belgium benefited from India’s improved compliance with EU traceability norms.
Shrimp export growth to slow: CareEdge
Ratheesh Kumar, Associate Director at CareEdge Ratings, said shrimp exports may moderate further due to US tariff headwinds, though diversification and frontloaded shipments offer some cushion.
“In the near term, US buyers are likely to continue partially absorbing elevated tariff costs on existing orders, aided by holiday-season demand. However, a slowdown in fresh orders and sustained tariff pressure could weigh on export momentum in the last quarter of the financial year,” he said.
Between April and August 2025, the effective tariff on Indian shrimp stood at around 18%, compared to 13–14% for competitors such as Ecuador and Indonesia. After August, the duty on Indian shipments surged to about 58%, sharply weakening India’s price competitiveness in the US retail and food service markets.
Shrimp export margins may decline 150 bps: CareEdge
“Operating margins are likely to moderate by 150 basis points, more so in FY27. Support to operating margins is likely to arise from partial cost pass-through and softer farm-gate prices,” said Sandeep P, Director at CareEdge Ratings.
The report added that recent RBI measures such as temporary moratoriums and extended export credit will ease near-term liquidity pressures for shrimp exporters. However, long-term competitiveness will depend on stronger compliance frameworks and trade agreements.
“To realise its full potential, India must accelerate bilateral trade agreements and strengthen compliance frameworks—particularly in areas such as traceability, sustainability, and cold-chain infrastructure,” said Priti Agarwal, Senior Director at CareEdge Ratings.
