Morgan Stanley expects Adani Power‘s market share in the thermal segment to nearly double to 15% by FY32 with its capacity rising two-and-a-half times to 41.9 gigawatt. With a market share of 8% in FY25, Adani Power is the second-largest power producer in the country after state-owned NTPC in both coal capacity and generation.
“Adani Power has seen favourable resolution of most regulatory issues and has a strong balance sheet with a FY25 net debt/Ebitda of 1.5x,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.
Brokerage expects strong funding
The brokerage said it expects 60-65% of its $27-billion capital expenditure for a capacity addition of 23.7 GW to be met through internal accruals. Also, timely project completions, combined with power purchase agreements (PPAs) getting signed, would drive earnings, it added.
“We see upside to our estimates of APL’s merchant portfolio declines from 20% currently, and profitability in recently acquired 2.9 GW power plants improves,” it said.
Adani Power Ebitda growth forecast by Morgan Stanley
Post its capacity expansion from 18.15 GW in the first quarter of FY26 to 41.9 GW by FY32, the brokerage forecasts Ebitda of Rs 67,200 crore by FY33, or a compound annual growth rate of 17% between FY22 and FY33. It expects net debt to peak at Rs 1.32 lakh crore by FY31, and the net debt-to-Ebitda ratio to peak at 3.2x by FY29.
India is looking to add 80 GW of coal by FY32 and there is currently a large PPA pipeline of over 20 GW, it said.