By Neeraj Singh Manhas and Bejoy Sebastian
For the last 73 years, mainland China, with 1.4 billion people, has been ruled by one party of 96 million members, the Chinese Communist Party. The General Secretary of the Party and the President of China, Xi Jinping, seek an unprecedented third term at the quinquennial 20th Party Congress, which will begin on October 16, 2022 and go on for a week.
This will effectively put him in the same power rank as Mao Zedong, surpassing Deng Xiaoping and other previous leaders of the Chinese party-state. At the upcoming Congress, President Xi is expected to set new norms and objectives for the nation, evaluate and break the old ones, recalibrate the party’s top brass, amend the Constitution, and will set the tone for China’s policy direction for the next five years or even more. This will have a bearing on China’s domestic and foreign policies. About 371 members constitute the party’s Central Committee. This centralised decision-making body will be rejigged at the upcoming Congress. Among them, the twenty-five-member Politburo with seven Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) members remain at the top of the party’s organisational hierarchy.
What is the major shift expected?
At the previous Party Congress in 2017, President Xi incorporated his eponymous ideology and thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era – (习进平新时代中国特色社会主义思想 Xi Jinping xin shidai Zhongguo tese shehui zhuyi sixiang) into the country’s ceremonial Constitution. Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping were the only two leaders with such an honour. As President Xi has done away with term limits in 2018, the Party Congress is expected to see no new leader elected in ten-year intervals since 1992. In the PBSC, all the leaders aged 68 and above, excluding the 69-year-old Xi Jinping, are set to retire, which could bring at least two new faces to the seven-member elite committee. President Xi could also reshuffle key party and governmental positions by placing loyalists.
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He has already consolidated power in the last decade, ever since he took over as the leader of the CCP in 2012. He created a strongman image at home with hardline policies such as “Zero Covid”, with mandatory quarantines, lockdowns and restrictions on travel taking a toll on the Chinese economy and the country’s image worldwide. Under Xi’s watch, Chinese diplomacy took a “wolf-warrior” turn. The Chinese military increasingly projected power in the neighbourhood, particularly in the South and East China Seas, the Taiwan Strait, and the land border with India. In these policies, continuity is expected with very minimal or no changes. In brief, President Xi is expected to cement his status as the “core” of the party and its leadership, thereby centralising power even more, but what needs to be seen is whether it would mean more openness or isolation for Chinese businesses and nationals, who are already facing purges on various fronts.
20th Party Congress and China’s economy in the future
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) legitimacy is integrally linked to economic success. This was the agreement reached by Deng Xiaoping and the Chinese people. As a result, the party celebrated the achievement of its first centennial goal in 2021, the abolition of absolute poverty and the establishment of a “moderately prosperous society”. The second centennial goal, set for 2049, is for China to be “fully developed, rich, and powerful.” This is what Xi Jinping refers to as the Chinese Dream of Great Renewal.
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The strict zero-Covid policy has not only economically crippled Chinese megacities but also caused enormous mental (and sometimes physical) suffering, as well as numerous civil protests throughout China. Then there’s the housing crisis. Over the summer, homebuyers in over 100 Chinese cities stopped making mortgage payments. The Covid lockdowns slowed housing construction. Local-level policy innovation and experimentation have been central to China’s “economic miracle.” However, this has become increasingly rare recently, as local officials fear political repercussions. The economic problems that China is currently facing are far too numerous for Beijing to solve. Unless China’s authorities re-incentivise decentralised techniques and policy innovation, the outlook for the Chinese economy’s recovery and the Party’s continued legitimacy is grim.
Way Forward
President Xi has solidified his power by appointing allies to critical positions and establishing a Party segment of support. With the addition of ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ to the Party charter and the removal of China’s constitution and term limits, Xi has no intention of stepping down. So who will determine the nation’s direction? However, the president lacks absolute power. Within the party, critics and alternative factions operate. His second term has also been marked by a failed early response to the pandemic, deteriorating relations with the United States, and a faltering economy. In a world that is becoming increasingly uncertain, the 2022 Party Congress will significantly impact China’s and its global affairs and will be a matter of concern and disclosed at the upcoming 20th Party congress.
Neeraj Singh Manhas is a Director of Research, in the Indo-Pacific Consortium at Raisina House, New Delhi.
Bejoy Sebastian is currently working as Teaching Assistant at FLAME University, Pune.
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