By Girish Linganna 

The Russian war against Ukraine is nearing two months. The intensity of war has been oscillating between a low and a high pitch. But who is on the path of victory and who is losing ground? There is no definite answer because no one knows what Russian President Vladimir Putin would do. He is not expressive. There may be many options before him, or there may be only one option left now – using nuclear power to put an end to the war. But that is only a guess.

The West thought that raining economic sanctions would make Putin kneel down before it. But that did not happen. On April 18, in a televised interaction with top economic officials, he ridiculed the West by saying the sanctions had failed. The West thought of quickly upsetting the financial-economic situation, creating commotion in the markets and collapsing the banking system, besides creating a shortage of goods and commodities. None of these things happened, but the West’s economy is deteriorating. The sanctions have backfired against the US and its European allies, spiraling inflation and lowering living standards, he pointed out. The developments are obvious.

At the same time, Putin confessed that there was a sharp increase (17.5%) in consumer prices in Russia as of April on a year-on-year basis. Some measures he has suggested to sail through the situation In the midst of putting forth his observations and facts, he never bothered to mention the trauma being faced by Ukrainians and Russians. He is no longer talking about the Ukraine government. According to the United Nations, no fewer than five million people have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war in February. To show that it can cause further damage, Russia successfully test-launched an intercontinental missile that can hit targets anywhere in the world. On top of that, it can duck any anti-missile defence systems. Putin, after the test, said the missiles would make those threatening his country “think twice.”

This implies that he is now focusing on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has 30 member states, of which 28 are in Europe and the rest 2 in North America. For now, NATO may look helpless because it is not entering Ukraine directly to fight against Russia. But if this most powerful alliance in the world decides to show their might to Moscow, then there will be a third world war. It would be difficult for Russia to fight against the unified military command structure of NATO.

For Vladimir, Ukraine is not the last destination. What will he do with the present Ukraine, which is bombarded and left with rubble? A majority of the infrastructure facilities have been destroyed beyond recognition. He is using Ukraine only to tame the West, which is backed by NATO. On Wednesday, Russia warned Sweden and Finland not to join NATO. The warning was issued that Moscow would not hesitate to park nuclear weapons near the borders of Finland and Sweden if they joined NATO.

Vladimir has every reason to be concerned about NATO’s hyperactivity in the Arctic region, which is surrounded by eight states: Canada, Denmark (including the Faroe Islands and Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden, and the US (Alaska). The US, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Canada are also members of NATO. The Arctic Council is an important intergovernmental forum where nations can discuss sovereign territory. Russia now holds the chairmanship of the council. But after the Ukraine war, the other seven members have expressed their unwillingness to attend the council meetings. If NATO did not have an army of its own, but if the member countries decided to have a direct fight with Vladimir, then the situation would be terrible.

NATO’s long-running exercise to train its armed forces began in March and is continuing in April too. Around 30,000 troops from 27 countries in Europe and North America are taking part in the military exercise near Norway. Billed as “Cold Response 2022,” this helps in training the armed forces to work in extreme cold conditions. Though this is a biannual exercise hosted by Norway, this time it has attained significance because of the war. Sweden and Finland are also part of the military drills. As a result of these developments, Russia has warned these two countries not to interfere with NATO’s expansion.

Russia is fighting tough in Ukraine because it doesn’t want to see NATO piling up soldiers and arms hardly 654 miles from St. Petersburg, the cultural capital of Russia. Outgunning the British forces or any smaller countries would not be a challenge to Vladimir. But the US will always be a challenge. NATO is powered mainly by the US.

The combined West appears to be stronger if one looks at military force inventories. Warfare, on the other hand, is about more than just winning and losing. It’s more about creating conflict and bringing down the economy. The question of who will get the last laugh in the Ukraine war is still to be answered. However, now is the optimum time for European countries to transition away from carbon fuels and thus become independent of Russia.

(The author is Defence and Space Analyst & Director ADD Engineering Components (India) Pvt Ltd. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).