The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis could have a major long term and short term impact on various procurement programmes of the Indian Armed Forces.

If the war between Russia and Ukraine continues for long then the delivery of the S-400 Triumf ‘SA-21Growler’ could get affected. The delivery of the system had started last December and based on the contract signed between the two sides, the complete delivery of five regimental kits from Russia is expected to be 2025. This long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system S-400 Triumf ‘SA-21Growler’ is meant to further strengthen India’s Air Defence.

Impact of Sanctions imposed by the US and European Union on Russia

The US and EU have imposed tough sanctions on Russia and for India, for any future defence deal with Russia could become tougher. For the purchase of S-400 from Russia and its subsequent delivery despite the US raising objections, according to diplomatic sources, the US was given details about the reason why the air defence system is important for the security of the country.

Also, India, according to sources, purely from a legal point of view had met with requirements under which the waiver could be given by the US administration at that time when it had imposed Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Now, the situation has changed. “Russia has waged a war over Ukraine. This is a huge crisis which will have a wide ranging impact not only on India but globally too. The US has imposed tough sanctions on Russia and the European Union, the UK, Japan and many others,” explained a senior officer.

“For India, the immediate impact could be on getting spares for various military equipment and platforms from Russia and Ukraine,” the officer quoted above added.

Payment for S-400

The two countries had agreed to the payments in Rupee-Rouble and top banks had been identified by both India and Russia. However, the sanctions imposed by the countries has cut off Russia from the international banking system, SWIFT, and this has now raised concerns in India. Why? Because it will impact the payments India has to make to Russia for various platforms it is getting from there.

Will the production of AK-203 Rifles get impacted?

According to sources, the production could get delayed once again. Why? Though all concerns have been addressed, the two sides have to ink the final deal and that could get delayed due to the ongoing war.

Delay in Project 1135.6 Frigates for the Indian Navy

Two Grigorovich-class ‘Project 1135.6’ frigates for the navy are in the middle of construction at a shipyard in Russia. The engines which will power these frigates are from Ukraine. Two engines for the frigates were sent to Russia to be fitted on these two frigates, which now are expected to be delayed due to the war.

This project was inked with Russia’s state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport in 2018 and is worth USD 2.2 bn.

This project could be delayed too. Two frigates are under construction at India’s Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL) with technology transfer from Russia.

Wait and Watch

“Several projects including the licensed production of T-90 Tanks; Mango APFSDS rounds for the tanks, and also the production of Su-30MKI fighters and AL-31FP aircraft engines, all could be on hold,” said another officer.

Will INS Chakra III come in 2025?

In 2019, India and Russia have an agreement for leasing one nuclear submarine. And as has been reported in Financial Express Online earlier, the two sides started discussion to lease another one as the Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean Region is growing. The war could have an impact on the leasing of the INS Chakra III. These submarines are being leased for training of the Indian crews.

China is watching

For India, the biggest concern is over the continuing standoff between the Indian and Chinese forces at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). China is a great supporter of Russia. Russia is likely to be neutral in case of any conflict between India and China.