After the worst drought in decades clipped food production during the last kharif season, all eyes are on output from the ongoing rabi harvest season. Rabi harvest, which contributes more than 50% to the country?s overall foodgrain production, will determine the direction in which food prices will move in the rest of the year. And the good news is initial indicators show that production of all major rabi crops like wheat, mustard and pulses is expected to be more than last year?s.
Indian farm sector growth which just six months back was looking down the barrel is now expected to be lower by just 0.2%. So, what made this turnaround happen? The scenario changed because of two factors.
First, good winter rains that lashed many parts of central, western and northern India provided much-needed moisture to the parched lands.
Second, remunerative prices to farmers and government measures minimised the impact of drought.
Though rabi farm output is expected to be much better, it won?t be big enough to wipe out all the losses accrued during the kharif season. According to a government estimate, foodgrain production in 2009-10 kharif seasons is expected to be around 100 million tonne as against 118.1 million tonne last year.
Though foodgrain production in the current rabi season is projected to be around 117 million tonne as against 116.3 million tonne, it will still leave around 17.6 million tonne shortfall in overall foodgrain production in 2009-10.
Same is the case with pulses, though rabi harvest in 2009-10 is projected to be around 10.5 million tonne, almost 7% more than last year?s, but overall production would still be less than last year?s because of fall in kharif pulses production. Official estimates show that improved rabi pulses production will help in pushing up overall pulses production in 2009-10 to 14.7 million tonne, as against 14.6 million tonne. The big gain is expected to be in wheat, the largest foodgrain grown during the rabi season.
Initial reports suggest that wheat production in 2009-10 is projected to be comfortably more than 80 million tonne, which would make it three consecutive years of bumper harvest.
?Last year, despite warm temperature in November? December, we could achieve more than 80 million tonne of wheat production and this year we could expect to exceed the figure because of absence of yellow rust disease and cold climate during germination period,? SS Singh, project director of Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research said. In the case of rice too, summer harvest is projected to be better than last year?s.
According to the second advance estimate, summer rice production this year would be around 14.69 million tonne, up from 14.27 million tonne harvested last year.
Mustard production during the rabi season is projected to be around 7.42 million tonnes, around 3% more than last year?s. Traders said a rise in mustard production is welcome because it brings down dependency on imported edible oil as the crop has highest oil content among all oilseeds grown in India.
Overall, oilseeds production in 2009-10 (both rabi and kharif season inclusive) is projected 26.32 million tonne, down 5% from last year.