According to major forecasts, the west coast of the country would receive a heavy downpour this week. The southern peninsular along with Gujarat and Maharashtra, but with the exception of Kerala, had received good rainfall in the last week of July. In the week ahead there are indications that rainfall over Tamil Nadu may turn deficient and lessen over some parts of south India.
In the last week of July, the average cumulative rainfall over the country was low by just 6% as some areas of the northern half of the country like Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, western UP, Western Rajasthan, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, eastern MP, northeastern India and some parts of southern India like Kerala and Lakshadweep received poor rainfall. However, this situation does not invite a problem, as most of these regions had earlier received good rainfall and there is no immediate indication for continuing deficient rainfall in these regions.
The country’s official weather forecast agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its forecast for the period August 4 to 6, based on numerical models has said, ?Rainfall activity over the southern peninsula would decrease.?
However, according to the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA), there is a possibility of deficient rainfall only in Tamil Nadu. The entire west coast including Kerala would receive excess rainfall amounting to 200 mm. In parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra rainfall would diminish and be to the extent of 35 mm by August 9. From August 10, the situation would improve and most parts of the country would receive good rainfall.
IMD has said that till August 6, there would be fairly widespread rainfall along the west coast, interior Maharashtra and Gujarat. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall would occur in northeastern India and the northeastern states.
IMD further said, ?Interpretation of numerical weather prediction models indicate the formation of a low pressure area/cyclonic circulation over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around August 3. With its likely northwestwards movement, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are likely to receive fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls during August 3 to 5. Rainfall activity is also likely to increase along the west coast, particularly over Konkan and Goa from August 5 onwards.?
