Speaking at the 40th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Lecture in New Delhi on Monday, Fareed Zakaria put India?s economic performance in perspective. Among his arguments: Turkey?s population is 6.3% of India?s but its GDP is only 20% smaller and it gets more than FDI. Turkey is a G-20 member like India.
India?s establishment and its elite have been pegging their national aspirational goals to China?s. But Zakaria is saying something important. There are other competitors in the emerging economies? league table?and they can leave India behind. A country with 1.1 billion people and of continental size can?t deliver middling economic performance over the medium term and still hope to be counted as a heavyweight.
Turkey has a competitive political narrative as well. A country rendered secular by Kemal Ataturk?s diktat is now trying to cope with politico-religious assertion?Turkey?s debates are every bit as fascinating as India?s. Right now, a box office hit biopic on Ataturk is the locus of the national debate. India still has problems critically examining its national icons. Turkey literally stands between Asia and Europe and therefore poses an important choice for Europe and the West in general. Plus, its neighbourhood has Middle-East states that hold the key to regional stability. No mistaking therefore Turkey?s geopolitical importance.
If there?s a global rebalancing of power of some sort, the non-Western slot after China is open. India tends to think it?s the natural occupier. But not just Turkey, but Brazil and Mexico (both G-20 members), may not be so sure about India?s ?natural? second rank. Who can doubt India?s potential. But can India, as Zakaria had argued elsewhere, harness power to purpose? India?s state is too soft, he had said. Over the next ten years, that?s one attribute India can?t afford.