The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, is on a monsoon mission. The institute is working on a long-range climate model that can make more accurate rain predictions, a top official said on Tuesday.

“We are working on designing a weather prediction model that will help in improving forecast for monsoon, weather and climate. We expect the model to be ready by 2016-17,” IITM director Professor B N Goswami told reporters.

?This will be based on a unified framework and will be an integration of climate, short-range and long-range models.? The Monsoon Mission project is being carried out in collaboration with IMD, under which the ministry of earth sciences has earmarked Rs 400 crore in the 12th Plan.

Shailesh Nayak, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said there has been considerable improvement in short-term to medium-range forecasts ( 5-day forecasts) in the last couple of years. Officials have given accurate predictions before Cyclone Phailin, Thane, Helen and Leher five days before the cyclone, something which was not possible before 2009, he said.

This year onwards, work has begun on extended forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) for a 10-day period and a 3 weeks by IITM, Nayak said. Nayak was in Pune for a national meet organised by IITM and the Ocean Society of India.

There are plans to switch to a dynamic model of forecasting soon, a shift from the earlier statistical model, he said. Several experiments are in progress and once these are completed, there could be a switch,he said.

Weather predictions have improved in the last 5-6 years due to improvement in data and if the co-relation of the data comes up to 0.6 from the current level of 0.5, there could be tremendous improvement, he said.

According to Nayak, in the last few years, the observation network has increased leading to a better understanding of the ocean and better weather forecasts. Making measurements in the ocean is an expensive process and a network of 12-moored buoys has been established in the Indian Ocean to measure the salinity and temperature profiles of up to 500-meter depths.

These buoys provide important data sets during and after cyclones to understand cyclogenesis, Nayak explained. Moored buoys are also being planned in the Southern and Arctic oceans. The development of buoy systems for accurately measuring sea level changes for tsunami detection is undergoing trials. An indigenous drifter buoy has been developed having INSAT communication for measuring sea surface temperature, surface winds and pressure.

Thirty such drifters are deployed every year in the Indian Ocean. In addition, some 3300 argo floats have been established in the Indian Ocean of which 450 are working and 112 are out of deployed by India. These provide salinity and temperature profiles of up to 2,000-meter depth.