For the first time since 2002-03, growth in power generation slipped below the 3% mark last fiscal due to tardy progress in project implementation by state, central and private operators, as well as an acute shortage of feedstock, especially coal. This has led to an increase in the gap between supply and demand to double digits for the first time since 2002-03. However, the peak-hour deficit has come down drastically, mainly due to improvement in plant load factors, especially by private sector generation companies.
According to the Union ministry of power, against a target of 774.1 billion unit in 2008-09, actual generation was only 723.6 bu, which translates into 93.4% of the target. This is a significant setback as generation growth came down to 2.7% in 2008-09, compared with 6.3% achieved in the previous fiscal. Ever since 2002-03, growth in power generation was well above the 5% mark, with 2006-07 showing a peak growth of 7.3%.
Beating targets was not unusual. In 2006-07, for instance, against a target of 623 bu, actual generation was 662.5 bu, a tad over 106%. In 2004-05, production exceeded the target by a narrow margin. Against a goal of 586.41 bu, actual generation was 662.5 bu, which was 7.3% higher than the actual generation of 617.5 bu the previous year.
Similarly in 2003-04, actual power generation increased by 5%, achieving 97.5% of the targeted 572.9 bu, while in 2004-05, actual generation increased by 5.2%, thus exceeding the target of 586.4 bu. In 2005-06, actual generation increased by 5.1%, achieving 99.4% of the target, while in 2006-06, actual generation shot up by 7.3% to 662.5 bu, which translates into 106% of the targeted 623 bu. In 2007-08, actual generation went up by 6.3% to 704.45 bu, an achievement of 99.2% of the targeted generation of 710 bu. However, in 2008-09, actual generation increased only 2.71% to 723.556 bu, achieving only 93.44% of the targeted generation of 774.09 bu.
The slippage in generation also widened the gap between availability of power and demand to 11% in 2008-09. Against a requirement of 774.324 bu, total availability in 2008-09 was only 689.021 bu. This is also a major reversal as the power deficit was always kept under 10% from 2002-03 to 2007-08. However, there has been a steady increase in power shortage since 2002-03, with the figure hovering between 7% and 10%.
Peak-hour shortage declined in 2008-09 to 12%, compared with 16.6% in the previous fiscal. From 2002-03 to 2006-07, the peak deficit was confined below the 14% mark. There is, however, some good news amid the gloom with plant load factors showing a remarkable improvement since 2002-03 with an achievement of 77.19% in 2008-09, against a target of 79.17% set by the ministry.
Private operators fared best, with their plant load factors improving to 91% in 2008-09 from 68.7% in 2002-03, well above the target set by the ministry. The improvement by the private sector has been pronounced since 2004-05 when the overall figure for the sector climbed to 80.4% from 68.7% in 2002-03. Ever since then, the private sector managed to improve its performance, crossing the 90% mark to close at 91% last fiscal.
The central sector also showed marked improvement, with plant load factors improving to 84.30% in 2008-09, from 77.1% in 2002-03, an increase of over 7% over the previous fiscal year. The only laggard was the state sector, improving only marginally to 71.17% in 2008-09, from 68.7% in 2002-03.
