Reduction in coffee production in three major producing countries, Vietnam, Columbia and India, will drag down the estimated global coffee production by 5.6 million bags for the crop year 2008-09.
“Total production for the crop year 2008-09 has been adjusted downwards, from 133.4 million to 127.8 million bags, mainly as a consequence of reductions in the estimates for Colombia, Vietnam and India,” said Nestor Osorio, executive director of International Coffee Organsiation (ICO) in a statement.
The state-owned Coffee Board’s post monsoon forecast for the current coffee year in India stood at 276,000 tonne, down by 5.6% from the earlier post blossom estimation of 293,000 tonne. Beside rains on the blossom day, the major reason for reduction in production was attributed to subsequent heavy monsoon rains in the respective zones resulting in berry drop due to wet feet conditions. Heavy rains coupled with hanging mist also resulted in severe incidences of rot and leaf diseases. Almost all the reduction was due to adverse climatic conditions in Karnataka, which accounts for almost 75% of the country’s total coffee production, a Coffee Board official said.
However, sufficient coffee exists at the global market to meet demand but shortage witnessed in the arrivals of washed Arabicas, primarily from Colombia, where production declined as a result of heavy rainfall and involvement of coffee farmers in replacing old trees in certain areas. Following this, the National Federation of Coffee Growers in Columbia made a downward revision to 10.5 million bags. This led the roasters to show interest in other types of coffee, particularly other milds. However, supplies of this type of coffee are also tight, as a result of adverse weather conditions in Central America, Osorio added.
The perception of a tightened supply situation has been reinforced by the reports received from Vietnam. Recently, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association (VICOFA) has published a new crop estimate for the current coffee year of 16 million bags, down by 3.5 million bags from the previous estimate as a result of low yields in older plantations and unexpected rainfall.
The reduction in the anticipated surplus in the current coffee year will have consequences in the future too.
In the next crop year 2009-10, production in Brazil, the largest coffee producer in the world, is expected to fall as this will be the off-year in the biennial production cycle. The Brazilian authorities forecast a crop of 36.9 million – 38.8 million bags.
A similar cyclical reduction is expected in Peru, which is a significant supplier of washed Arabica.
In fact, the volume of opening stocks in the exporting countries for the current crop year stood at 17.2 million bags compared to 25.3 million bags for the previous year. This level is the lowest recorded since ICO began collecting figures on stocks during the 1960s.
Forecast fall
• Total production for the crop year 2008-09 has been adjusted downwards, from 133.4 million to 127.8 million bags
• The state-owned Coffee Board?s post monsoon forecast for the current coffee year in India stood at 276,000 tonne, down by 5.6%
• In the next crop year 2009-10, production in Brazil is expected to fall. The Brazilian authorities forecast a crop of 36.9 million ? 38.8 million bags
