This September, property sales registrations in Mumbai have been the lowest since 2010, data sourced from Director General of Registrations, Mumbai, show. On a year-on-year basis, too, September recorded a fall of 8.6% to 4,114, the first month to show a decline in calendar year 2013.
Though data for the nine months from January to September 2013 appear to be holding strong with an increase of 11.2% over the same period of calendar year 2012, the fall in September has led to slower growth. In the first six months (from January to June), the y-o-y growth was 16%. The initial five months of January to May showed healthy increase in sales registration numbers, before moderating to single-digit growth over the same period last year. There were 48,429 sales registrations over January-September 2013 against 43,524 done last year.
The strong registration numbers in the first six months reflect the euphoria seen in the city?s realty market as more projects were launched following clarity on development control rules after a gap of a year and a half. However, concerns over lower GDP growth and the uncertain job environment seem to have hit customer sentiment. India?s GDP growth of 4.4% for three months to June was the slowest since the January-March quarter of 2009. While India does not have a high-frequency employment indicator, a dipstick survey conducted by FE in September showed that nearly 2 lakh jobs had been lost over the last 6-12 months across sectors like gems and jewellery, construction, automobiles, education, stock broking, tourism, aviation and media.
?In metro cities, the supply has increased but with slower GDP growth and fewer jobs being created, there is some impact being felt on sales. There will be a negative or positive 5-10% change in registration numbers for the next few months, but it is not a worrisome situation as customers now have more options, best prices and can negotiate with developers, which should result in more sales,? says Sunil Mantri, vice-president, National Real Estate Development Council (Naredco), and chairman and managing director, Mantri Realty.
Lalit Kumar Jain, chairman, CREDAI, does not find the data surprising and says that as long there is growth there is a ?silver lining? for the sector. ?Real estate is sentiment-driven and people like to wait to get the best price; however, there are genuine buyers in the market now who are either sitting on the fence looking for best opportunity or making a purchase, which is a postive.?
Overall unsold inventory in Mumbai is high, Jones Lang LaSalle REIS data show. Greater Mumbai, for example, has close to 48 months of unsold inventory against the acceptable level of 15 months.
