Nation now looks forward to a good bounty from the rain gods in the crucial four-month monsoon season ? a situation that can tame the rising prices with a bumper harvest.
The price inflation trend measured on the basis of the point-to-point movement in the wholesale price index touched the double-digit mark at 11.05% on the week ended June 7, this year ? the highest in last 13 years. This has added to the worries of the government, particularly when the country goes to polls next year.
Food, feed and fuel are the 3Fs which matter most as price inflation is concerned. The government has recently hiked the prices of petroleum products and the results have become evident with the rising prices of commodities and transportation. The projected record foodgrain production in 2007-08 at 227.32 million tonne (mt), which included 95.68 mt of rice, however could not act much as cushion. Recently the government has estimated that the 2007-08 wheat output would be a record high at 78 mt. The nation awaits another bumper harvest to soften prices.
However, the initial notes of monsoon performance have been encouraging. The South-West Monsoon arrived at the Kerala coast a couple of days earlier than its scheduled date and rapidly progressed to other parts of the country. It advanced to Delhi on June 15, ahead of its scheduled arrival on June 29.
The countrywide average cumulative rainfall recorded till June 18 has been 45% more than the normal. Rainfall has been in excess in 21 out 36 meteorological sub-divisions and normal in 11. Only four meteorological subdivisions ? Marathwada, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Assam and Meghalaya have been unfortunate to receive deficient rainfall. The encouraging note is that barring Assam and Meghalaya, the rainfall in other states in northeastern India improved and these states received normal rainfall.
At the micro-level the monsoon performance also seems to be encouraging. About 58% of 533 meteorological districts received excess rainfall, while 16% each of the total meteorological districts received normal and deficient rainfall. There was scanty rainfall in 9% of the meteorological districts and no rains in only 1%.
The S-W Monsoon has covered most parts of the country, expect parts of western Rajasthan. As per normal schedule it should cover the remaining parts of the country by July one. Still there are about two weeks?policymakers are keen on observing the future performance of the monsoon, particularly in July?the month most crucial for Indian agriculture.
Before the arrival of the monsoon in different parts of the country there were some pre-monsoon rainfall which added moisture to the parched soils. Taking advantage of the situation the farmers took to early cultivation of summer crops.
The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department has predicted that the countrywide cumulative rainfall in the four-month monsoon season would be 99% of the long period average of 89 cm with a model error of ? 5%. Thus the indications are for a good rainfall in the season. The IMD, however, is slated make an improved forecast by the end of this month, predicting the rainfall in different homogeneous regions in the country as well as countrywide rainfall in July.
