As the Opposition front in Tamil Nadu headed by J Jayalalithaa?s AIADMK formally launched its Lok Sabha election campaign this evening, its ambition was as unambiguous as the design of the stage at the venue: a miniature Parliament.
Many are predicting that Jayalalithaa and her allies?Left parties, S Ramadoss?s PMK and Vaiko?s MDMK?will be critical to the formation of the next government at the Centre.
For one, the AIADMK is in a better position to face the electorate than it was in the last elections. In 2004, her government confronted a massive anti-incumbency wave. The DMK rode on this and also forged a shrewd alliance. The Jaya-led front was trounced 40-0.
In 2009, the AIADMK has taken a leaf out of its rival?s gameplan, stitching together an alliance that resembles the DMK-led front five years ago.
The AIADMK has reduced the number of seats it is contesting to 23 out of the total 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the lone seat in Puducherry. In a fractured electorate, the number of seats contested is not directly proportional to the number of seats won. For instance, the DMK contested only 16 seats last time, less than half of the 33 that the AIADMK contested.
Though Jayalalithaa?s party raked in over 1.5 million votes more than the DMK in 2004, it won no seats. The latter was helped along to victory by the last mile votes brought in by its alliance partners.
A history of electoral sweeps notwithstanding, it is not yet clear what surprises are in store on May 16 in the state. For one, the DMK is not in the lonely position the AIADMK was in five years ago.
Jayalalithaa herself is not taking any chances, and has replaced her party?s candidates three times. But her allies are visibly more uncomfortably placed in the contest than in 2004.
The PMK is facing an angry DMK, hell-bent on ensuring the defeat of all seven candidates put up by Ramadoss. Even in the northern region of the state where the PMK has a firm footing, the DMK has selected candidates. The CPM is also facing tough competition this time in all the three seats it is contesting, compared to the virtual walk-over last time.
But there is another crucial lesson that the 2004 results taught all players in Tamil Nadu: While 40 remains the magic number, even 16 will do. The DMK went on to corner plum cabinet berths and a say in government policy at the Centre with 16 seats.