The monsoon is expected to begin on a strong note this year, helping to ease inflationary conditions in the commodity sector. According to a forecast by Columbia University?s International Research Institute for Climate & Society (IRI), the rains will be good in the first half of the four-month monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department is also expected to release its projection this week.
The IRI map shows that in the first two months of the monsoon season, there would good rains in the southern peninsula and parts of central India. In August-September, apart from peninsular India, there would be good rains in Gujarat, parts of Rajasthan and in the eastern Himalayas.
Between the two competing water currents in the Pacific, El Nino (warming of Pacific water above normal) and La Nina (cooling of Pacific water below normal), the latter is expected to dominate. The La Nina effect contributes to good rains.
According to IRI data, the good rains in the first two months may taper off towards the end of the monsoon season. There is also a possibility of an early arrival by the southwest monsoon, somewhere in May, due to the La Nina factor.
IRI is slated to update its forecast on April 17. The US Climate Prediction Centre of the National Centres for Environmental Prediction, confirming the gradual decline of the El Nino factor, however, says: ?La Nina is expected to continue for the next three months.? La Nina has already contributed to heavy rainfall over Indonesia.
