Bringing some good news for millions of Indians reeling under the impact of scorching summer and rising food prices, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that south-west monsoon rains this year could be normal and even above normal in some places as the dreaded El Nino weather phenomenon that caused widespread drought in 2009 has waned and conditions have become favourable for development of La Nina phenomenon, which causes more than normal rains during the June-September season.

The Met office in its latest June monsoon forecast said showers this year could be around 102% of the long-period average (LPA). Almost 4% more than its April forecast of 98% of LPA. LPA of the monsoon season as whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cms.

Though, rainfall in June till now has been on an average almost 11% less than normal across the country, but the Met office hoped that in July rains would be around 98% of the LPA, which will then rise to around 101% of the LPA in August. In other words, monsoon rains this year could be more in August than in July.

Region-wise, rainfall for the 2010 southwest monsoon is likely to 102% of LPA over north-west India, comprising of big foodgrains growing areas of Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. It would be 99% of LPA over central India, comprising of states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, which suffered heavily in the 2009 drought. Monsoon over eastern India, where kharif paddy production last year was severely impacted because of low rains is expected to be a healthy 103% of LPA.

Adequate rainfall may help Prime Minister Manmohan Singh?s efforts to tame food inflation rate that has remained over 15% since November and lower the need to buy sugar, pulses and edible oils from abroad.

India overtook China as the world?s biggest buyer of palm oil and became the largest sugar importer after the weakest monsoon in more than three decades last year.

?We have seen high food inflation and that will be taken care of by good monsoon rains,? Bloomberg news reported quoting Utpal Choudhury, head of research at Dalmia Securities Pvt.from Mumbai. ?This is good for economic growth as agriculture will be able to contribute to the economy the way it should.?

Normal rain is categorised when showers are between 96% and 104% of the long-term average.

India?s benchmark wholesale-price inflation accelerated to 10.16% in May, near the fastest pace in 17 months.