In the past few weeks, there had hardly been anything to cheer about on the economic front. So, there is reason for us to rejoice over some of the more recent developments. The European finance ministers? meet had indeed brought some good news for Greece and the threatened economies of Spain and Italy, in terms of reducing the debt burden by 50%, commitment for an additional bailout package of 130 billion euro, strengthening of the European Financial Stability Facility and raising the capital adequacy norm of the banking sector to 9%.
These measures have, for the time-being, laid to rest the uncertainty about the future of euro and the perception of a growing distance between the bigger and smaller players in Europe. Immediately afterwards, the visit of the IMF chief to China to reiterate the need for a helping hand towards the European crisis shows that economic pragmatism remains the key to modern days? economic development.
This may be a much better approach compared to a constant reminder and, sometimes, threat to China for desisting from currency manipulation.
Although Chinese growth has come down from 9.7% in Q1 to 9.5% in Q2 and 9.1% in Q3, the country by virtue of owning more than $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserve and the ability and will to take the country forward by scaling newer heights of production and exports can provide the much-needed succour to the crumbling environment. Secondly, a marginal improvement is at last discernible in the GDP movement in the US with no significant implications for unemployment.
If the two major centres of Europe and US do stop their further southward journey, this itself would make a huge impact on global trade.
India?s Industrial Production data for September are dismal, compared to the previous month’s. But data for H1 should be of more concern as monthly indices are liable for upward revision later. Thus, the total industrial production has grown 5% in HI, contributed by a 5.4% growth in manufacturing and 9.4% growth in electricity generation.
It is good to know that electricity generation is increasing at a much faster rate compared to last year (9.4% against 3.8% in H1 of the last year) and also the basic goods segment has increased by 6.9% compared to 4.7% in H1 of the last year.
The total steel consumption has increased 2.8% in H1. Even to end up the current fiscal with a 5% overall growth, the consumption in H2 must grow at 7.6%, which may still turn out to be feasible. The optimism of SAIL chairman of a better scenario in H2 has also been shared by his counterpart in Tata. The winds of change must carry the message of hope to the user segments as well.
The author is DG, Institute of Steel Growth and Development. The views expressed are personal