Three years after breaking away from Shiv Sena to form the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Raj Thackeray is poised to face his first Assembly elections in Maharashtra. The ruling Congress-NCP alliance is banking on the MNS to play spoiler for the Shiv Sena-BJP combine, especially in the Mumbai-Thane-Nashik-Pune regions.
Over the past three years, the MNS, still in its political infancy, has notched an impressive record at the hustings. In elections to municipal corporations since its formation, it has won 45 seats, including 12 in Nashik, eight in Pune, seven in Mumbai and three in Thane. The MNS fielded a dozen candidates in the recent Lok Sabha elections out of which 10 secured over a lakh votes each, acting as spoilers for Sena-BJP nominees and thereby enabling Congress-NCP candidates to win.
After the Lok Sabha results, the jittery Sena (which had won one Lok Sabha seat in Mumbai in 2004 but could not win any in 2009) launched a campaign against the MNS, branding it as a traitor. The executive president of the Sena, Uddhav Thackeray, told Marathi voters that those who voted for the MNS had committed a mistake as it helped only in electing Congress-NCP alliance candidates, most of whom were non-Marathis.
The MNS has made the Sena take to the streets to consolidate its position in the run-up to the Assembly polls. In cities like Mumbai, both parties are vying for the attention of voters in general and Marathis in particular.
For instance, the MNS took up the issue of power tariff hike by Reliance in the Mumbai suburbs, but the Sena was the first to hit the streets in protest. The outcry on the streets forced the state government to direct the Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission (MERC) to stay the hike. Subsequently, a month ago, when the MERC approved a hike in power tariff for domestic consumers and sops for malls (as a cross-subsidising exercise) proposed by the state power utility Maha Vitaran (that supplies power to parts of Mumbai suburbs and the rest of the state) Raj threatened to agitate against the sops for commercial users. However, the Sena moved faster to hijack the issue and took to the streets, resulting in the state?s intervention.
The MNS has broken the monopoly of the Shiv Sena over issues like Marathi culture and jobs for locals. But it will not be easy going for the outfit, as the Sena has launched a campaign portraying Raj as the betrayer of the Marathi cause. According to Uddhav, Raj is a stooge of the Congress-NCP, wanting to damage the Sena. Appealing for unity of Marathi Manoos for the polls, Uddhav said, ?Those who are dividing the Marathi Manoos votes have taken supari (contract) from the Congress, which is following the British strategy of divide and rule.?
Then, the MNS does not have the funds to contest all 288 seats; it will contest around 100 in the upcoming polls. Some of Raj?s close associates like Shweta Parulkar (who headed the MNS women?s wing and had secured 1.08 lakh votes from Mumbai South Central Lok Sabha seat), Prakash Mahajan (brother of late BJP leader Pramod Mahajan) and Sanjay Ghadi (MNS vice-president) have quit the MNS and joined the Sena recently. All of them said they were quitting because of Raj?s ?autocratic? style of functioning.
But Raj contends the MNS is there for the long haul. ?I am not a spoiler for anyone. What happened in 2004 when the Sena performed badly, even when the MNS was not around?? he asks, pointing out that his party has prepared a longterm blueprint for Maharashtra?s development.
Interestingly, when Raj formed the MNS in 2006, he wanted to go beyond the Marathi agenda and reach out to other sections like Dalits and Muslims (suggested by the blue and green colours in the party?s flag). However, for almost a year, the strategy apparently did not work as expected: there was no substantial inflow of cadres and leaders from these communities.
In its search for relevance, the MNS grabbed the opportunity to score over the Sena when the Sena-ruled municipal corporation in Mumbai decided to organise ?chhat puja? and grant tax sops for Bhojpuri films. The MNS launched a campaign against the Sena and the corporation for ?appeasing? migrants from north Indian states. Subsequently, its activists attacked job aspirants in Kalyan (on the outskirts of Mumbai) that made Raj infamous among north Indian leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ramvilas Paswan, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav.
The sharpening battlelines between the warring cousins are likely to help the Congress-NCP alliance. But there is another new player in the poll fray who may damage the combine?s prospects ? the ?Republican Left Democratic Front? formed by Ramdas Athawale as the Third Front in the state. The front is likely to nibble into the traditional Congress-NCP vote.
