There is an air of expectancy in Lucknow since last month?s Ayodhya verdict. The anxiety is over what political parties in Uttar Pradesh would do to engage the Muslim community in the aftermath of the verdict. In any case, this is not 1992; hence old patterns of engagement with the Muslim community will not work. What the new pattern is, nobody knows.
Chief minister Mayawati played the first gambit in the battle for the Muslim vote, which much to her chagrin, had migrated en masse to the Congress in the 2009 general elections. Tight bandobast before the verdict and a calm state after it earned her kudos and the trust from the community. What helped also was the pragmatic state of mind of the community, 18 years after the demolition of the Babri Masjid.
?It is a fact that the Muslim community reacted in a very pragmatic manner post the verdict. It has also forced a rethink in all parties in Uttar Pradesh on just how to engage them,? says senior Congress leader Akhilesh Pratap Singh. ?Mulayam Singh Yadav?s statements after the verdict about how the community was disappointed was a mistake,? adds Singh.
In fact, Maulana Imran Quadri, a prominent cleric in the state says that the community is watching the parties as anxiously as parties are watching the community. ?Outfits like Azamgarh?s Ulema Council are non-starters. A Muslim party will never be viable here. We need mainstream parties to engage us differently,? he says.
Mayawati?s move has been seen in a positive light while Mulayam Singh Yadav is being seen as having read the signs wrong. It is however the congress which has the most to lose.
In 2009, because of the Samajwadi Party?s tie up with Kalyan Singh, the Muslim vote went to the Congress. In the Assembly elections, this is not so. The Congress has not come up with any positive agenda for the community, which may hurt its chances. The 2012 Assembly elections are being essentially seen as a contest between the BSP and the Congress. The Muslim vote will be the game changer.