A report released recently by Standard & Poor’s indicates that energy demand in non-Japan Asia is rising much faster than in the developed countries.
It states that although US oil rose at 1.8% annual rate between the years 2000 and 2005, Western Europe demand was up at 0.4% and the demand in the Asia-Pacific region grew by 3%. These relative growth rates are likely to continue over the next 25 years. During the current decade, Chinese demand is expected to rise at 9.9%. It would be double the average demand for energy in the Asia-Pacific region. It is estimated that by 2030, the Asian continent will use more energy than the combined consumption of Europe and North America. Total energy consumption in the world was up 2.4% in 2007, a slight slowdown from 2.7% in 2006. Every major region saw higher consumption, with Asia up the most and Europe, the least.
Even with that, however, per capita use of energy has lifted. In the US, higher per-capita GDP has increased energy use per person by 2.0% (1971 to 2005). For the world overall, energy use per head has risen 15.7% (1971-2004). The average American used 4.7 times as much energy as the average for the world in 2005 and nearly twice the average of Western Europe and Japan.
Energy Information Administration (US) puts out alternative forecasts based on differing price trajectories. Under a high-price case ($186 per barrel by 2030), demand would be only 99 million barrels per day, still up 15 million barrels from 2005.
