The monsoon system is gearing up to bestow rains on the parched soils of Gujarat and peninsular India after two weeks of dry weather.
There have been some rains in Gujarat and other parts of western India since July 24. The weather advisory issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on July 25, said, “Numerical weather prediction models continue to suggest a southward shift of the monsoon trough from tomorrow onwards and the subsequent formation of a low pressure area over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around July 27. Under this scenario, rainfall activity is likely to increase considerably over central India adjoining peninsular India during the next 3 to 4 days. The ongoing rainfall activity over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, and Goa is likely to continue and extend into Gujarat during the next 3 to 4 days”.
Earlier, both The Financial Express and The Indian Express on July 21, quoting global forecast agencies, had said that the monsoon system over peninsular India would revive after
July 27. The forecasts of global agencies have assured the least possibility of emergence of the El Nino factor, which dispels the apprehension of severe drought this year. The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) has predicted good rains over the country till August 11.
The average cumulative rainfall recorded by IMD for the current monsoon season till July 23 shows that it has been deficient over central India by 15% and over south peninsular India by 32%. The rain deficient areas are Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Assam, Megahalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura.
In the week ended July 23, there was good rainfall over the northeastern parts of the country, which had earlier received deficient rainfall, like Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu received excess rain. In peninsular India, Tamil Nadu is the only state, which has been receiving good rain so far. But Rajasthan and western MP received scanty rain and eastern MP, Chattisgarh and Orissa received deficient rain in the week ended July 23 – a situation which may invite concern.
Rainfall deficiency in July, the month crucial for Indian agriculture, has affected standing crops in south India, where farmers began sowing with the early arrival of the monsoon and bountiful rainfall in June. The area coverage under some crops like red gram, black gram, green gram and other pulses, groundnut, sunflower, sesamum, niger, castor, jowar, maize suffered a setback due to erratic rains in July. The area under cotton shrunk, as farmers switched over to paddy cultivation, particularly in the Malwa region in Punjab on account of bad experience of the mealy bug on Bt cotton.
