Deutsche Bank has revised China’s GDP forecast from the previous 10.7 per cent and 9.7 per cent to 11.4 per cent and 10.2 per cent for 2007 and 2008 respectively.
Deutsche Bank chief economist in China Ma Jun said the German bank lifted the figures because China’s GDP growth in the second quarter reached 11.9 per cent, 0.7 percentage points than their previous prediction.
Moreover, China’s National Bureau of Statistics had changed the GDP growth rate for 2006 from 10.7 per cent to 11 per cent, implying China’s potential growth rate was underestimated.
On the other hand, in the second quarter, China’s fixed-asset investment growth rate, two percentage points higher than the corresponding period last year, might reach 25 per cent in the second half of 2007, he was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.
“We lifted the prediction for 2008 mildly from 9.7 per cent to 10.2 per cent because we are concerned about the US economy,” Ma said.
Ma pointed out that if the US economy slowed down, China’s exports, particularly in furniture, electronic appliances and textile sectors, might decline.
He also forecast that industries driven by domestic demands, such as banking, cement, coal and retail business, will continue with their momentum.