The monsoon season is set to stretch beyond the usual period of end-September, likely showering above-normal rainfall this year and raising hopes that the country is well on course to reaping a bumper food crop this summer, although floods hit some areas.

Rainfall until September 24 reached 4% above the benchmark 50-year average, much higher than the Met department?s June forecast of a below-normal monsoon season (June through September) at 95%. The weather office defines normal monsoon as 96% to 104% of the long-term average.

The rains gained pace since August after maintaining a deficit until end-July. The country usually receives most of the showers by end-August and then the rains start retreating. But government officials say monsoon withdrawal is likely in October this year, which intensifies concerns about floods in certain parts, although rainfall has been well-distributed this year.

Monsoon is crucial for agriculture growth as more than 60% of the country?s farmland is rain-fed and more than a half of the country?s working population is employed in agriculture.

?The surge in showers since August boosted the planting of summer crops and output projections, although crops in some parts of paddy-producing West Bengal and Orissa have been washed away by floods. Still, India, the world?s second-largest grain producer, expects to reap a record summer rice harvest of 87.1 million tonne in the current crop year through June 2012 due to higher planting,? agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said this month.

?Higher rice output will drive up overall grain production to a record 123.88 million tonne this summer, compared with 120.20 million tonne a year earlier, although pulses and cereals lag last year?s level as farmers shifted to paddy and cotton anticipating higher returns,? Pawar said.

Paddy planting surged by 9.7% to 38.14 million hectare as of September 23 since sowing started in June, according to the agriculture ministry data. Summer crops are usually sown with the arrival of monsoon rain in June and harvested from mid-September. Paddy is primarily a summer crop, although some quantities are also grown in winter.

The country is aiming to produce a record 102 million tonne of rice in the crop year through June 2012, higher than 95.32 million tonne produced in 2010-11, mainly due to higher planting and wide-spread rain. The geographical spread of rainfall is as important as the quantum of it.

A higher rice production in 2011-12 will help the government in its battle against food inflation and meet its obligation as it gears up to implement a proposed food security law that will widen subsidised grain sales to the poor from the government stocks.

?Oilseed output is set to rise to 20.89 million tonne this summer from 20.25 million tonne a year before, while sugarcane output is expected to touch 342.2 million tonne,? Pawar said. Cotton production is set to climb to a record 36.1 million bales of 170 kg each this summer, which is higher than the Cotton Advisory Board?s estimate of 33.5 million bales.

The planting of oilseed inched up by 3.2% to 17.86 million hectares until September 24 from a year earlier. Area under sugarcane rose by 3% to 5.09 million hectares, while cotton sowing went up by 9% to 12 million hectares, according to the data.

India, the world?s second-largest vegetable oil buyer, imports around half of its annual requirement. Any increase in oilseed production will help domestic supplies. Moreover, any rise in the output of sugar and cotton in 2011-12 will boost exports of these commodities as local supplies are expected to cross demand.

However, output of pulses and coarse cereals is set to fall to 6.43 million tonne and 30.42 million tonne, compared with 7.12 million tonne and 32.43 million tonne a year earlier, respectively.

Prospects of higher returns in paddy and cotton crops lured farmers away from pulses and cereals. As of September 24, pulses sowing fell by 9% to 10.94 million hectares, while cereals planting declined by 5% to 20.01 million hectares.

Lower output of pulses may drive up imports in 2011-12 as the country meets around one-fifth of its annual requirements through overseas purchases. Higher imports may spell trouble for local prices. The country, however, is largely self-sufficient in cereals output.