Cancun is in news again. Seven years ago, this coastal city in eastern Mexico was the venue for the 5th ministerial meeting of the WTO. In a few weeks? time, from November 29, the city will be hosting the next United Nations Conference on Climate Change.
The similarity in backdrops between the two occasions is striking. The WTO ministerial in 2003 followed the earlier ministerial in Doha in 2001. The Doha ministerial had adopted the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) that attempted to make developing countries bigger players in global trade. World trade dynamics were never the same again with the North-South divide surfacing sharply on several issues leading to almost negligible progress on the agenda. The Cancun ministerial brought out the divide in world trade in the open with daggers sharply drawn. Though one does not know the fate awaiting Cancun this time, like in 2003, it is convening after a tumultuous and landmark summit on climate change in Copenhagen in 2009.
The latest summit on climate is also expected to see the North and South clashing on several issues, particularly quantum of emission cuts. Developing countries have taken most by surprise by implementing programmes of large-scale cuts in emission volumes. China led the efforts followed by Brazil, India and Indonesia. On the other hand, major developed country emitters?the US, Canada, Australia, for example?are yet to announce similar targets.
Major emerging market countries are expected to criticise their developed counterparts at the forthcoming summit for lack of action. China?s role in this regard has been similar to what it has been playing at the WTO. China?s annexation to the WTO was announced at the Doha ministerial in November 2001. Its entry was accompanied by unprecedented commitments to cutting tariffs and non-tariff barriers. The particularly noticeable commitments were the deep cuts in agricultural tariffs and the transitional safeguards to other developing countries for responding to sudden spurts in Chinese exports. By the time the action shifted to Cancun, agricultural tariffs in China were nearly half of such tariffs in other emerging markets and developed countries. China has frequently cited its extensive commitments to deeper market access as example of its lasting commitment to the multilateral trade system. This has been the plank on which it has been criticising lack of movement by developed countries in reducing subsidies and domestic support on agricultural exports. In a similar vein, by announcing unconditional commitments to emission cuts, it has put developing countries on a wrong foot with regard to the action agenda on climate change. There will be considerable pressure on high emission developed countries at Cancun, particularly the US, to spell out an action plan.
China has utilised the changing balance in global economic power for pushing a proactive position on climate change. Developing countries have been pressing for financial assistance for fulfilling emission cut targets. China?s unconditional move is a reflection of its confidence to go ahead without financial support. On the other hand, the US and Europe will find it hard to contribute generously to the public fund that is expected to help developing countries in mitigating emission targets. Surplus resources with developed countries after the financial crisis are hardly much to ensure sincere commitments in this regard.
China, India, Brazil and South Africa (BASIC) are a powerful coalition of emerging market economies that is expected to take on developed countries at Cancun on the future roadmap for addressing climate change. The BASIC inevitably refreshes memories of the G20 coalition on agriculture at WTO. The four BASIC members were part of the G20 group of developing countries that took on the US and EU on market access proposals on agriculture in the WTO ministerial at Cancun in 2003. The aggressive posture of the G20 on subsidies and special and differential (S&D) treatment for developing countries led to collapse of talks on the DDA. This time, two months before the climate meeting at Cancun, the BASIC met at Tianjin in China for developing a common strategy for the forthcoming summit. The BASIC has decided to urge developed countries to commit to ambitious reduction targets and contribute handsomely to a new public fund for meeting mitigation costs. They have also urged developed countries to fulfil commitments on technology transfers and not deviate from the same on climate grounds.
The underlying circumstances and build-up to Cancun?seven years later?are too similar in terms of the North-South dynamics to be treated as purely coincidental. Will the outcome be the same as well?
The author is visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in the National University of Singapore. These are his personal views
