In a commonly accepted definition, Max Weber described a failed state as one that is unable to maintain a monopoly over the legitimate use of physical force. When this monopoly collapses, so does the centralised authority?s ability to maintain government institutions or ensure law and order. Once this happens, legal and police bodies, and other similar entities surrender their authority to armed groups and criminal elements, forces that destabilise civil society in general. Of the various countries competing for the top spot in a list of today?s failed states (like Afghanistan and Pakistan), Somalia emerges as a surefire winner.
The self-appointed Transitional Federal Government headed by ?president? Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed is the fourteenth such interim entity since 1991. Some have characterised it as ?a gang headed by a crook?. Somalia?s infamously insecure maritime situation has only worsened on the interim governments? watch, with its authority specially compromised by the so-called Islamic court?s takeover of much of the south in 2006. While some local admirers of this regime welcomed it as effective administrators, once the Bush administration spotlighted it through the War on Terror lens, alleging Al Qaeda linkages, its days were numbered. But Ahmed?s regime continues to jostle with both Islamist insurgents and clan rivals. In fact the clan system continues to dominate in a pre-national fashion. Primordial warlords, armed of course with modern wea-pons, continue to run the country, with the Isaaq clan having taken effective control in the northwest, which it has declared the independent state of Somaliland (without international recognition). As a direct fallout of this gory conundrum of competing clans, a tenth of the population has been displaced since 1991. Meanwhile, the media is stifled and foreign journalists feel particularly like persona non grata thanks to kidnapping threats and worse.
There is not even any central bank to speak of in Somalia; the currency is effectively without regulation, with notes being printed ?freely? with impunity. Forget physical and financial safety, Somalians do not have even basic food security. Around one-thirds of them depend on external humanitarian aid for sustenance, with 90% of it arriving by seas that are heavily menaced by piracy.
In sharp contrast to the collapsing infrastructure around them, Somali sea pirates have really gotten their act together, capturing over 60 ships and amassing up to $100m this year alone. Over the years, not only have their attacks increased in frequency, they have also gotten quite sophisticated, with the pirates having purchased faster crafts, advanced assault weapons like rocket propelled grenades that can penetrate the hull of oil supertankers, and also advanced GPS and other technologies.
In the face of their advance, the international community has doubled the cautionary exclusion zone around Somalia, which used to be 50 nautical miles until five years ago. Even this is not reflective of the increased vulnerability around the country?s coast, with the Basque fishing boast FV Playa de Bakio having been seized off some 217 nautical miles in April. That particular raid won the pirates around $1.2 million from the Spanish government. And as of now, the pirates are holding some 20 foreign ships hostage, including a Japanese-owned merchant vessel with 18 Indian crewmembers on board.
The Indian National Ship Owners Association estimates that $100 billion of India?s sea trade passes through the Gulf of Aden, whose instability is costing our ships $450,000 a month in cost overruns and deadline delays. At a time when the facts of globalisation have come under concerted scrutiny, thanks to both the democratic drama and the financial flux of the world?s richest state having gone viral across the globe, it is clear that the security challenge of Somalia?s unruly waters poses a global threat. About 10% of the world?s shipping passes through the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden. A third of the trade between Europe and Asia goes through these waters, which would become perilously pricier if it had to go around the entire African continent.
?renuka.bisht@expressindia.com
