When the UN climate change conference began in Bali on December 3, it had a modest aim for nearly 190 participating countries. The agenda was to lay down a roadmap for formal negotiations to arrive at a successor to the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012. Still in force, this Protocol commits 36 developed countries to targeted emission reductions by 2008-2012, though the US, the biggest emitter, has not ratified it. The Bali initiative is about looking further ahead, and involves negotiations for two years till 2009, followed by a window of three years for ratification by member countries. The difference is that there is now unprecedented worldwide awareness about human-induced global warming and the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports this year have provided ample testimony that mankind is to blame for increased global warming. Also, public fears of melting polar ice caps, vanishing glaciers, higher sea levels, frequent floods, droughts and other forms of devastation have been vivified by sustained audiovisual campaigns. The IPCC and climate change activist Al Gore even shared this year?s Nobel Peace Prize for awakening large numbers of people to the crisis upon the planet.
Bali thus began on a confident note, and the early signs were good. The US agreed to join negotiations. Australia?s new political leadership agreed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Yet, progress on the roadmap for a new climate change treaty leaves much to be desired. While the EU wants the roadmap to lay down a range of GHG emission cuts from 25% to 40% below a baseline of 1990 by 2020 for industrialised countries, the US, Japan and a few other countries are opposed to such tough bindings. The host country, Indonesia, is trying to push for a midway meeting of the two camps that could deliver a Bali declaration for negotiating a new climate change treaty by 2009 without quite specifying any targets on emission reduction. The declaration may instead end up with a guideline that emissions should be cut to below 50% by 2050. In the meantime, reports say that this year may be one of the warmest years ever?with a little contribution from the Bali conference itself. The conference is estimated to have generated annual pollution of about 20,000 cars!
