Guarseed futures prices may remain weak over the next few days on reports of appreciating rupee and forecast of early arrival of monsoon.
Thanks to strong rupee value against dollar, demand from overseas market was low and will depend on the currency movement. Also, forecast of early arrival of monsoon will play important role for guarseed output.
?The rupee value had appreciated about 4.25% in past four days. This strong movement was unexpected and unusual, after the ruling coalition won a comfortable victory in the elections. Hence, demand for export is limited as strong rupee may hit exporters? margin. Futures prices are also ruling lower than spot prices,? a leading trader at Jodhpur said.
Guargum exports were initially estimated to touch 2.25 lakh tonne this fiscal, but now the industry expects it to be 1.75 lakh tonne only.
The NCDEX June 2009 contracts (ex-Jodhpur) fell nearly Rs 50 to trade at Rs 1,757 per quintal on Thursday over past one week while spot price at Jodhpur market was quoted at Rs 1,772.75 per quintal.
?Indian Metrological department (IMD) would give its second long range weather forecast by mid-June. This would decide the further trend in guar complex. If the initial forecast of normal monsoon hold well, guar output may be expected good next year,? analyst with Angel Commodities said.
?Besides output forecast, other factors like demand from the overseas market, rupee movement and trend in crude oil prices would also have an influence on the prices in the long term,? he added.