Trying to predict outcomes of cricket matches if you aren?t a bookie is one of the silliest things to do. More often than not you end up looking like a complete fool with little knowledge of the game. Such is the charm of cricket, which makes it one of the most revered and most delightful of sports in the world. Take Michael Clarke for example. He had scored one in the Sydney Test match of 2008 in both the innings including a golden duck in the Australian second innings. This time round he scored an unbeaten 329. So much for the past influencing the present! Despite the odds heavily stacked against you, one of the vagaries of being a cricket analyst is to have to predict the outcomes of matches/series. And if you get it right, by chance that is, it is a matter of tremendous satisfaction.
Taking refuge behind all the caveats mentioned above, I am of the opinion that the Indians will do well in the tri-series beginning today. The one-day 50 over format is the one where Indians have done extremely well in recent times. While we have lost eight straight test matches overseas and were knocked out in the super six stage of the T-20 world cup in England and also in the Caribbean, we have been quite competitive in the 50 over format both at home and overseas. India lost 2-3 in a close series to South Africa in South Africa in the lead up to the world cup, which the Indians won on home soil. A depleted Indian side managed to beat the West Indians 3-2 in the Caribbean before losing 0-4 to the English. However, take a closer look at some of these games and it is evident that the Indians could have won at least three of them. Rain, luck (the much used word in Indian cricket of late) and Duckworth-Lewis had robbed the Indians on more than one occasion. Suresh Raina, M S Dhoni and Virat Kohli had played extremely well in England and Dhoni was hardly ever dismissed in the one day series. Dhoni, the limited overs player is a completely different proposition to the Dhoni in white flannels.
A look at the Indian one day side makes it quite evident that most of the players are in their prime. Raina, Kohli and Rohit Sharma form a very dependable middle order with Dhoni batting at number six. Sachin and Sehwag at the top with Gambhir coming in at number three complete a batting line up that can hardly continue to fail time and again. All of these men are due and none of them would want to come back to India without doing something tangible on this tour down under.
A word on Tendulkar is in order here. He was easily the best batsman on view in the first two test matches of the series. At Melbourne he was the best player on either side and that innings of 73 will easily rank as one of the better ones played by an Indian on this tour. That he wasn?t able to convert it into a ton continues to rankle us all. Sydney too was so close yet so far. Out on 80, Sachin should have powered on for that elusive hundred but fell to Michael Clarke edging to Hussey at slips. In what is most certainly his last tour of Australia, he?d surely not want to come back without a three figure score in the entire three months away from home. He was extremely focused before he?d left India and the defeats have hurt him a lot. No legend wants to sign off with a failure and Sachin isn?t an exception here.
A tri-series victory may not be a supplement for a Test series whitewash but it will mean a sweet end to an otherwise disastrous tour. It will also mean that come 2014-15 India will go down under with a good chance of defending the coveted world cup won after 28 years on home soil. This is because most of the current players barring Sachin are expected to be around in 2014. Sehwag, Gautam, Raina, Rohit, Virat, Dhoni and Jadeja may well be India?s top seven two years down the line. From that standpoint, a good tri-series will be of significant meaning going forward in the 50 over format of the game.
Having said all of what I have I do dare to predict that India will not only make the final but also stand a good chance to repeat their 2008 performance in the 50 over format and return winners. Only time will tell if I am way off the mark.
The writer is a sport historian