The government on Thursday said the country?s total food grain production could touch a record 216.13 million tonne in 2006-07, with an estimated increase of 5.5 million tonne in wheat output.
Releasing the fourth advance estimate of crop production, agriculture secretary PK Mishra said the final estimation would be released in January next year.
While the third estimate pegged the wheat production at 73.7 million tonne, the latest projection has revised the output upwards to 74.89 million tonne for 2006-07, against 69.35 million tonne produced last year. ?Unless there is some major change in any crop, the fourth advance estimate gives a clear picture of the country?s agricultural production,? a government official said.
The estimate is based on the crop cutting experiment, which was complete 70-75% when data was collected, the secretary said. He said the main reason for the increased wheat output was the rise in its cultivation area, besides an increase in the productivity level. The wheat acreage in 2006-07 went up 6% to 280.35 lakh hectare, compared with 264.83 lakh hectare in the previous year, he said, adding that the productivity level also increased to 2,671 kg per hectare from 2,619 kg per hectare.
Rice production would be up 1.1 % to 92.76 million tonne, from 91.79 million tonne in 2005-06, according to the fourth estimate. The agriculture ministry has also pegged a higher production for pulses, sugarcane, cotton, jute and coarse cereals like maize, jowar and bajra. Pulses production is estimated to rise 6.3 % to 14.23 million tonne, against 13.39 million tonne last year. The 12.4 % drop in tur output expected in the 2006-07 season would be compensated by a 13.2 % jump in chana production.
Cotton production is likely to jump 22.7 % to a record high of 22.7 million bales from 18.5 million bales, as farmers going for cotton instead of oilseed crop in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, the agriculture secretary said.
Oilseeds output is expected to decline by a significant 14.7% to 23.88 million tonne, from about 28 million tonne produced in 2005-06. However, soyabean production, estimated to be at an all-time record of 8.86 million tonne, is the only exception in the oil seed sector. Mishra said mustard production in 2006-07 was also hit in Rajasthan as farmers shifted to wheat and chana.
The government estimates mustard output in last season at 7.1 million tonne, from 8.13 million tonne in 2005-06 while the groundnut production is pegged at 4.91 million tonne, from 7.99 million tonne – a drop of 38.5 %. The sugarcane production, according to the estimate, is likely to be 345.31 million tonne from 281.17 million tonne. According to the first advance estimate the cane output was fixed at 283.1 million tonne for 2006-07 which went up to 323 million tonne.
Replying to a query on the huge difference between first advance estimate and the fourth estimate, the agriculture secretary said sometime it might go wrong as first estimate came at a very early stage of the cultivation process.