As US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepare to meet in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, one issue could take centre stage: diesel.
The two leaders are meeting as the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year, but the discussion may not only be about territory, ceasefire lines or ending the war.
Trump has made his position clear several times. He wants Ukraine to stop hitting Russian diesel and refinery infrastructure, not only as a step towards reducing tensions with Moscow, but also because the attacks are cutting fuel supplies at a time when diesel prices are already near record highs in several major markets.
Trump asks Ukraine to stop Russian refinery attacks
Trump laid out his position in a Truth Social post on Monday. He said Russia had “lost control” of its diesel industry because of the war, with a large number of refineries “blown up” and taken offline, at least temporarily.
He also described the war as “ridiculous and never-ending” and pointed to around 25,000 deaths a month, most of them soldiers, as another reason for the war to end.
But Trump’s concern is also about the impact of the attacks outside the battlefield. According to the Financial Times, Trump’s phone call with Zelenskyy on Sunday focused heavily on the effect of the Ukrainian strikes on the global fuel market.
Two senior Ukrainian officials briefed on the call told the newspaper that Trump urged Zelenskyy to order Ukrainian forces to stop drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries. Trump also raised concerns about rising diesel prices and wanted Russian fuel supplies to return to global markets without further disruption.
Trump had already made a similar demand on September 13.
“Mr. Zelenskiy has to do one thing: He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia… There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel. That’s hurting the world,” Trump said.
Global diesel supplies are under pressure
European diesel futures closed at a record high last week and were more than twice their level at the start of 2026. In the US, retail diesel prices have crossed $6 a gallon for the first time.
The problem is not simply a lack of crude oil. A major issue is the amount of refining capacity available to turn crude into usable fuels such as diesel.
The International Energy Agency warned about the situation in a newsletter on Monday.
“Many refineries around the world are already stretched to capacity,” the IEA said. It added that this “leaves few available options to prevent a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months.”
US refineries, for example, were operating at their highest utilisation rate in eight years in late August. That may sound positive, but it also means there is very little spare capacity available if another major supply disruption takes place.
Why India is closely watching the situation
India is one of the world’s biggest oil importers and has also become an important refining and fuel-export hub. Indian refiners have long relied on discounted Russian crude since Western sanctions disrupted Russia’s traditional oil markets.
Indian companies buy Russian crude, refine it into products such as diesel and then sell some of those products to international markets, including Europe.
That trade could benefit from any further normalisation of Russian energy exports. If Russian crude and fuel flows become easier, Indian refiners could see more stable supplies and potentially better pricing for Russian oil.
However, there is another side to the issue.
India has already faced pressure from the US over its purchases of Russian oil, including tariff threats and diplomatic tensions. Any US-backed change in the way Russian energy reaches global markets could therefore come with new conditions for Indian buyers.
Moreover, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law on September 18. The law allows the US administration to target the five biggest buyers of Russian oil or gas with tariffs of up to 100%. India and China are among the countries that could be affected.
However, the law does not automatically put a 100% tariff on Indian goods. It gives the Trump administration the legal power to decide whether to impose such tariffs and at what rate.
That leaves Indian refiners facing uncertainty just as they plan for a possible return of Russian energy supplies to global markets.
Higher diesel prices can raise transportation and logistics costs. They can also increase costs for farmers and other businesses that depend on diesel. That can eventually add to inflation.
Russia welcomes Trump’s position
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow supports any effort to persuade Kyiv to stop attacking what he described as “civilian economic infrastructure”. He also blamed instability in the Gulf for much of the wider energy crisis.
Ukraine, however, sees the refinery attacks differently.
Ukrainian officials say the strikes are a legitimate military tactic and one of the few ways Kyiv can directly put pressure on Russia. By hitting refineries and fuel infrastructure, Ukraine can reduce the fuel available to Russia’s military while also putting pressure on its economy.
The attacks have continued despite Trump’s earlier statement that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure.
The Middle East war has disrupted diesel refining and exports, with regional diesel shipments falling by about half to 800,000 barrels a day between March and August. This is a major concern for Europe, which got nearly 41% of its diesel imports from the region in 2025.
Red Sea shipping disruptions have added to the pressure, with Kpler warning that any further disruption could tighten supplies further. The main problem now is limited refining capacity, rather than a shortage of crude oil.