For several tense days at the end of July, the Trump administration appeared to be preparing for a major new attack on Iran. The move came after a shaky ceasefire fell apart, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for nearly two weeks and Iran also attacking targets in the Gulf.
The plan reportedly involved a joint US-Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iranian power plants, refineries and other energy facilities. But by Saturday evening, August 1, US President Donald Trump had stepped back from the plan, at least for now.
Trump said on social media that Middle Eastern allies had agreed on the “parameters” of a deal aimed at ending the war. He said he would hold off on ordering new strikes while negotiators worked to complete the agreement.
The decision came after a week of intense diplomacy, military pressure and rising opposition to the war inside the US amid looming mid term elections.
Saudi Arabia pushes Trump to step back
The push toward a possible deal became clearer on Saturday after a phone call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
People familiar with the conversation told AP that the crown prince asked Trump what new action he was considering. He also repeated Saudi Arabia’s preference for bringing the war to an end rather than expanding it.
Saudi Arabia had a clear reason to be worried.
If the US and Israel began attacking Iranian energy facilities on a large scale, Iran could respond by attacking energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia.
That could pull Saudi Arabia and its neighbours directly into a war they have largely tried to avoid.
The concern was not new. Earlier in the week, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had sent his brother, Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, to Washington. He met Trump and Vice President JD Vance and reportedly argued for de-escalation.
Iran warned Gulf countries could be targets
Iran was also preparing for the possibility of another US or Israeli attack.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard-linked Tasnim news agency reported that Iranian officials had prepared a plan to retaliate against energy infrastructure across the region.
The potential targets included facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Israel. The plan would be activated if the US or Israel attacked Iranian energy facilities, according to the report.
Speaking to Reuters, a senior Iranian security official described any US attack on Iran’s infrastructure as reckless. The official said Iran had prepared a response covering both Israeli and American-linked energy facilities in the region.
Trump’s message offered both a warning and a way out
Calling off the strikes on Saturday, Trump said the US military was “locked and loaded” and ready to use force against Iran at a level not seen “since World War II”. He then said Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to pause, saying “the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to”.
The proposed deal calls for the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen and for Iran’s nuclear threat to end. Trump stressed that a final deal had not been reached and agreed “to cancel the attack” only if a deal could be reached quickly.
He told negotiators to “get to work” and “get it done”, while saying Israel had joined the effort. The post also leaves the door open for fresh strikes if talks fail.
What is in the emerging deal?
The framework Trump described has two main demands. The first is the “immediate, complete and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Second is an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Trump said Israel had agreed to work with the US to finalise the deal. He also said his decision to pause the strikes came after requests from Middle Eastern allies. Saudi Arabia was not the only country pushing for de-escalation.
Axios reported that Qatar, the UAE, Turkey and Pakistan had also pressed Washington and Tehran to reduce tensions in the days before Trump’s announcement.
Iran had not publicly responded to Trump’s announcement by Saturday night. Given the repeated breakdown of ceasefires and agreements during the past five months, there is still no guarantee that this framework will hold.
Israel wanted a tougher approach
Saudi Arabia’s position was very different from Israel’s.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Trump at the White House earlier in the week, it was their first face-to-face meeting since the war began. According to Israeli officials, Netanyahu expressed doubts that diplomacy would work. He instead discussed ways to increase military pressure on Iran.
That left Trump facing competing messages from two key partners in the region.
Americans are growing tired of the war
On the other hand, Trump is facing growing opposition at home, according to AP-NORC, Reuters/Ipsos and CNN polls.
The AP-NORC poll found just 28% approved of his handling of Iran, down from 34%, while Republican support fell from 71% to around 61%.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 60% opposed the war, while nearly three-quarters rejected sending US ground troops.
A CNN poll found only about one in four Americans believed Trump had a clear plan or that the war was worth its cost.
Rising gas prices and looming midterm elections
Rising gas prices are adding to Trump’s political troubles, with US petrol reaching about $4.11 a gallon, up from $3.15 a year ago.
With the November 3 midterms approaching, Republicans face a narrow 217-212 House margin and a 53-47 Senate majority.
Republican strategists fear that an unpopular war and higher fuel costs could repeat the 2006 Iraq War backlash, which helped Democrats win both chambers. The concern is growing as support for Trump’s Iran policy falls even among Republicans.
The new strike plan Trump was considering
By Friday, July 31, US officials were discussing a serious plan for another major escalation. At a cabinet meeting at Camp David, Trump discussed a possible joint US-Israeli campaign against Iranian energy infrastructure.
The targets included power plants, refineries and other facilities. Officials said the goal was to weaken Tehran’s ability to continue the war and push Iran back to negotiations.
CBS News reported that the plan would have marked Israel’s return to direct strikes after several weeks. Officials also discussed the possibility of deliberately cutting electricity to Tehran.
Some White House political advisers strongly opposed the idea during the meeting. However, Trump seemed growing frustrated with diplomacy. “We just want to win,” he told reporters earlier, adding that the US would continue hitting Iran “very hard” until Tehran could no longer take it.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Iran had already broken the June memorandum of understanding by attacking shipping and killing American troops.
What happens next?
The next few days will show whether Saturday’s decision is a genuine turning point or simply another pause in a war that has repeatedly stopped and started again.
The biggest question is whether Iran will accept the terms Trump has laid out. Another is whether Israel, which has pushed for a tougher approach, will hold back from taking military action on its own.
There is also the question of whether technical talks, which have struggled to make progress since June, can now move quickly enough to produce a final agreement.