British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is making headlines once again, but this time, for not-so-good reasons. If we go by the polling data provided to The Independent newspapers, Sunak and 15 of his Cabinet colleagues are likely to lose their seats in the 2024 elections. The report suggests that only 5 Cabinet members including Michael Gove, Nadhim Zawai, Jeremy Hunt, Suella Braverman, and Kemi Badenoch will likely continue to remain in office beyond the anticipated election.
But this isn’t the first poll to say that Sunak might lose his Parliamentary seat. A few weeks earlier, polling by Savanta showed the opposition Labour party 20 points ahead of Sunak’s ruling Conservatives. That survey was also one of the many that gave the Labour Party a wide lead. But what exactly is the reason behind growing criticism around Sunak and his team of Conservatives?
To understand Sunak’s declining popularity, we will first have to understand the five promises that he made to the people of Britain in a speech that was considered to be quite ambitious. Here we will look into Sunak’s five pledges and get into the intricacies of why the UK may possibly think of them as an exaggeration and find them vague.
1. Halving Inflation
Britain’s PM has pledged to halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and provide people with financial security. Various economists have predicted that inflation should automatically fall in 2023, according to a Reuters report. The prediction falls in line with The Bank of England’s website which cites that “from mid-2023, inflation is expected to fall sharply, conditioned on the elevated path of market interest rates, and as previous increases in energy prices drop out of the annual comparison. It then declines to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection.” The outlook further states that risks around that declining path for inflation are judged to be to the upside.
2. Growing Britain’s economy
Rishi Sunak has vowed to grow Britain’s economy and create better-paying jobs and opportunities for the people. As rosy as it sounds, the numbers speak differently. According to a Reuters report, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had earlier predicted that economic output would go back to the normal level only by the end of 2024.
3. National debt falling
Sunak’s promise to reduce the national debt and secure the future of public services is something that is already the UK government’s fiscal target. However, the Office for Budget Responsibility has projected that the national debt will increase in coming years, Reuters reported. The debt, as per the report, will increase both in absolute terms and in terms of the percentage of economic output.
4. Waiting Lists
In a bid to speed up care for patients, Sunak has promised to cut NHS waiting lists. As per the NHS website, the waiting time starts when the hospital or service receives the referral letter, or whenever the first appointment is booked through the NHS e-referral service. The waiting period only ends if a clinician decides that no treatment is required or the patient himself decides that he doesn’t want to be treated. According to the British Medical Association, the NHS backlog data for October 2022 analysis shows that the list has hit a record high of almost 7.2 million people waiting for treatment with 2.91 million waiting for treatment for over 18 weeks. The visible backlog, without a doubt, makes Sunak’s promise seem vague.
5. New laws to stop small boats
Sunak’s last pledge is to pass new laws to stop small boats that are looking to gain entry into Britain illegally and the people caught doing that will be detained and removed swiftly. There are many who are debating the implementation of these laws, and rightfully so, as this kind of trade is quite vastly spread over the English channel. Laws that will work in this case are going to be a huge challenge, and as poetic as it may sound, promises are easier to make but harder to keep.