Xi Jinping posed a larger question to President Donald Trump during their high-stakes meeting in Beijing — can China and the United States avoid falling into the “Thucydides Trap”? Xi asked whether both countries could overcome the “Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major country relations?” according to Chinese state media. He also warned Washington over Taiwan, saying “‘Taiwan independence’ and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning wrote on X.
What is the ‘Thucydides trap’?
The term was popularised by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s, though it traces back to the ancient Greek historian Thucydides and his account of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. Thucydides wrote, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
Allison adapted the idea to modern geopolitics, arguing that when a rising power threatens to displace an existing dominant power, tensions can spiral toward conflict even if neither side initially wants war.
In his book, “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”, Allison examined 16 historical cases of such rivalries. According to his analysis, 12 ended in war while only four avoided direct conflict.
Why Xi keeps invoking the term
Xi has referenced the concept repeatedly since at least 2014, using it as a framework for China’s relationship with the United States. He also raised it during a meeting with former President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Peru in November 2024.
China’s message has largely been that confrontation between the world’s two biggest powers is not inevitable. Beijing has consistently argued for what it calls “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation” as the basis for ties with Washington.
By invoking the “Thucydides Trap,” Beijing also frames US-China tensions as something bigger than disagreements over trade, technology or Taiwan, instead presenting them as a defining test of whether two major powers can coexist without conflict.
US-China rivalry through this lens
The theory has increasingly been used to explain growing tensions between China and the United States as Beijing expands its economic, military and technological influence while Washington seeks to maintain its long-standing global dominance.
Allison pointed to several historical examples to explain the pattern. One was the rivalry between Imperial Japan and the United States in the 20th century, which culminated in World War II after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.
Another example was the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Regardless of decades of hostility and proxy wars, the two nuclear powers avoided direct military conflict.
He also cited post-Cold War Germany’s rise within Europe as an example where conflict was avoided because Germany expanded primarily through economic strength rather than military power.
Taiwan remains a flashpoint
Even as Xi spoke of avoiding confrontation, he delivered a pointed warning over Taiwan, an issue that remains one of the most sensitive fault lines in US-China relations. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly opposed any moves toward formal independence. The United States, while officially recognising Beijing under the “One China” policy, continues to maintain unofficial ties with Taiwan and supplies it with defensive weapons.