US midterms 2026: Why Indian-American voters could matter in key Senate races

More than 2.1 million Indian American adults were eligible to vote in the US, according to AAPI Data’s analysis of 2022 Census data. The community also recorded high turnout in recent elections, reaching 71% in 2020 and 70% in 2024.

That combination could matter in the 2026 US midterm elections, where control of the Senate may depend on a handful of competitive races.

Democrats need to gain four Senate seats to take control of the chamber, while Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage. Reuters has identified nine of the 35 Senate races on the November 3 ballot as competitive, including contests in Georgia, Texas, Michigan and North Carolina.

Indian Americans do not form a majority in any of these states. Their potential influence comes from where they live, how quickly their communities are growing and how many turn out to vote.

AAPI Data’s 2024 “Indian Americans: By the Numbers” guide, last updated on August 6, 2025, found that the Indian American population rose from 387,000 in 1980 to 4.4 million in 2020. Including people who identified as Indian American and more than one race, the 2020 figure was nearly 4.8 million.

California had the largest Indian American population in 2020, at about 903,000, followed by Texas with about 507,000, New Jersey with about 433,000, New York with about 431,000 and Illinois with about 277,000.

But population size alone does not determine electoral influence. The political importance of a community depends heavily on whether its voters are concentrated in competitive races.

Where could Indian-American voters matter most?

Georgia

Georgia could be one of the most closely watched states. Republican Donald Trump narrowly won Georgia in the 2024 presidential election, while Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff won his 2021 runoff. Reuters has listed Georgia among the nine competitive Senate races that could help determine control of the chamber.

Ossoff faces Republican Representative Mike Collins in November. At the same time, Georgia’s Indian American population has been growing rapidly. AAPI Data found that it increased by 67% between 2010 and 2020.

The Atlanta metropolitan area has become a major centre for Indian American families and businesses, giving the community a growing presence in a state where narrow margins can matter.

Its political influence is also extending beyond voting. Indian American Impact, a political organisation that supports South Asian candidates and voter mobilisation, pointed to several wins in Georgia’s May 2026 primaries.

The organisation said Nabilah Islam Parkes advanced to the Democratic runoff for lieutenant governor, Rahul Garabadu advanced to a state Senate runoff and Jyot Singh won a state House primary. Indian American Impact said Singh was on track to become Georgia’s first Sikh elected official.

The organisation said it had supported more than 200 candidates across the US since its creation in 2016 and directed more than $20 million towards candidates and voter mobilisation.

Georgia therefore illustrates the community’s growing role not just as voters, but also as donors, organisers and candidates.

Texas

Texas presents a different case. The state has one of the largest Indian American communities in the US. AAPI Data counted about 507,500 Indian Americans in Texas in 2020 and estimated that more than 227,000 Indian American adults were eligible to vote, based on 2022 Census data.

The 2026 Senate race has also turned Texas into an unexpected battleground.

Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico, with Reuters listing the contest among the nine competitive Senate races that could determine control of the chamber.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but polling has shown a close contest. Talarico led Paxton 45% to 40% in a Texas Public Opinion Research poll reported by The Texas Tribune, which also found Talarico with a strong advantage among independents.

There is no evidence that Indian Americans alone will determine the Texas race. But their numbers make them a voter group that campaigns cannot easily ignore.

The community’s turnout is another reason. AAPI Data found that Indian American turnout reached 70% in the 2024 election, giving the group one of the highest turnout rates among Asian American communities.

Michigan and North Carolina

Michigan offers another example of how population size and electoral competitiveness can intersect. Reuters lists Michigan among the competitive Senate states. The Detroit suburbs and Oakland County are important population centres for Indian Americans, potentially giving the community greater relevance if the statewide contest remains close.

North Carolina has also recorded rapid growth in its Indian American population. AAPI Data found that the population increased by 104% between 2010 and 2020.

The state is also important within the broader Asian American electorate. AAPI Data and APIAVote said AAPI voters represented 3% of the eligible electorate in North Carolina in 2024.

That figure covers the entire AAPI electorate, not Indian Americans alone.

The distinction matters because Indian Americans are only one part of the wider Asian American electorate. The same survey found that AAPI voters represented 4.2% of the eligible electorate in Georgia and 3% in Michigan and Wisconsin. Nevada had the highest share among the listed battlegrounds, at 12%, while Arizona stood at 4.4%.

What are Indian-American voters telling Democrats and Republicans?

The latest voting data gives both parties a reason to compete for Indian American voters. The 2026 Asian American Voter Survey, released by AAPI Data and Asian & Pacific Islander American Vote on August 26, surveyed 2,066 registered voters between June 3 and July 27.

The Indian American subgroup included 242 respondents, while the Senate preference figure was based on 148 Indian American respondents.

Among those surveyed, 66% said they would vote for a Democratic Senate candidate if the election were held at the time of the survey, compared with 22% who preferred a Republican candidate.

The pattern was similar for House races. Sixty-six percent preferred a Democrat, while 18% preferred a Republican.

These figures are not a prediction of the November result. They show voter preferences when the survey was conducted.

Indian Americans also differ somewhat from the wider AAPI electorate. Among all AAPI voters, 60% preferred Democratic Senate candidates and 24% preferred Republicans. For House races, the figures were 64% and 22%, respectively.

The survey found that economic concerns were particularly important across the wider AAPI electorate. Ninety percent of Asian American voters said cost of living and inflation were very or extremely important to their voting decisions, followed by healthcare at 82%.

Jobs, unemployment, Social Security and Medicare were also among the major concerns. For Indian American voters, immigration and several social and domestic issues also remain significant.

AAPI Data’s earlier surveys found that 73% of Indian American voters considered immigration extremely or very important to their voting decisions. Seventy-one percent supported making it easier for immigrants to sponsor family members for visas.

Climate change and the environment mattered to 77% of Indian American voters, while 81% considered gun control an important issue. Abortion or reproductive rights were considered extremely or very important by 57%.

That means campaigns cannot assume that Indian American voters will respond to a single issue. Household costs, healthcare, education, public safety, immigration and other domestic concerns can all shape how individual voters approach the election.

Is the Indian-American vote shifting?

Indian American voters have historically leaned Democratic, but recent data suggests the Republican share has grown.

AAPI Data’s 2025 update of its Indian American guide found that 55% of Indian American voters identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic in 2024, compared with 26% who identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

In 2020, the corresponding figures were 59% for Democrats and 21% for Republicans. The Democratic advantage therefore remains substantial, but the change gives Republicans an opportunity to compete for a larger share of the community.

Indian American voters are also not a single political bloc. The 2026 survey shows a clear Democratic preference, but also a sizeable Republican minority and voters who do not align with either party.

Their priorities can differ depending on where they live and the race they are voting in.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information, polling data, survey findings and official reports. Financial Express Digital does not predict or endorse any election outcome. Polling, voter preferences and campaign dynamics can change before voting takes place.