US midterms 2026: 10 things that have changed since the last election

But the political and electoral landscape is different from the last nationwide election in 2024.

President Donald Trump is back in the White House, economic concerns have moved higher on the voter agenda, immigration has become less dominant in several polls, and voting rules have changed in a number of states. Congressional district boundaries have also shifted, while artificial intelligence has created new questions around election security and ballot privacy.

Here are 10 developments that have changed the environment ahead of the 2026 midterms:

1. Trump is back in White House

Donald Trump is no longer a presidential candidate. He is the sitting president, making his policies and public approval part of the political environment surrounding the 2026 congressional elections.

A September Pew survey found that 42% of registered voters said their congressional vote was a vote against Trump, while 22% said it was a vote for him.

Views of Trump were a bigger factor in the 2026 congressional vote than views of then-President Joe Biden were at a comparable point four years earlier.

That makes the 2026 midterms different from the 2022 elections, when Biden was president, and the 2024 presidential election, when Trump was running for the White House.

2. Prices lead concerns

Economic issues, particularly prices and affordability, have become central to the 2026 campaign. A Pew Research Center survey found that 51% of voters specifically identified prices and affordability as issues they wanted congressional candidates to address.

The Associated Press has also highlighted concerns about rising gas and grocery prices as voters approach the election.

An AP-NORC poll found that 38% of registered voters said Democrats would better handle the cost of living, compared with 27% who chose Republicans. AP reported that the issue had been more evenly divided earlier in the year.

At the broader economic-policy level, 37% of Americans said they agreed more with Democrats, while 36% said they agreed more with Republicans.

3. Immigration has shifted

Immigration remains an important campaign issue, but recent polling suggests it is no longer at the top of the voter agenda in several parts of the country. Axios reported on October 1 that cost of living had become the top issue for voters, ahead of immigration.

In Ohio, a September survey found that 25% of voters listed immigration among their top three concerns, while a combined 70% identified the economy and inflation.

Axios also reported that immigration had become less prominent among some voters compared with the period before Trump took office. In Texas, the share of Republicans and independents naming border security and immigration as the state’s most important problem had fallen from the previous year.

Trump’s immigration policies remain part of the campaign. An Ipsos survey in late August put his disapproval on immigration at 58%, compared with 38% when he took office last year, according to Axios.

The shift does not mean immigration has disappeared from the campaign. Its importance varies across states and voter groups.

4. Congress has low approval rating

Voters are also expressing dissatisfaction with Congress. Only 25% of Americans had a favourable view of Congress in the latest Pew survey, while 72% had an unfavourable view. The favourable rating had fallen from 32% in August.

An AP-NORC survey found a similar lack of confidence in both major parties. Relatively few registered voters said either party could solve important problems or help people like them.

The dissatisfaction therefore extends beyond one party. Voters are assessing both parties as they compete for control of Congress.

5. Electorate is more diverse

The US electorate has changed in size and composition since the last midterm election. Pew Research Center projects that about 249.75 million Americans will be eligible to vote in 2026, around 8.45 million more than in 2022.

The increase is particularly notable among Hispanic and Asian eligible voters. Pew projects that the Hispanic eligible-voter population will reach around 38.95 million, up about 5.25 million from 2022.

The Asian eligible-voter population is projected to have increased by about 2.25 million, while the Black eligible-voter population has risen by around 1.65 million.

By contrast, the number of White eligible voters is projected to have declined by about 2.6 million.

Pew projects that White eligible voters will account for 61% of the electorate in 2026, compared with 63% in 2024. Hispanic eligible voters are projected to account for 16%, compared with 15% in 2024.

Pew said the growth of the Hispanic electorate is largely linked to US-born Hispanics reaching voting age and naturalisations.

These figures describe the eligible electorate, not turnout or voting preferences.

6. Voting rules have changed

Voters in several states will face different election procedures in 2026 than they did in 2024.

The Brennan Center for Justice reported that 22 states enacted 47 restrictive voting laws between the 2024 election and September 1, 2026. The centre said 38 of those laws, along with parts of another, were scheduled to be in effect for the midterms.

The changes include tighter identification requirements, documentation requirements for some voter registrations and changes to mail voting.

At the same time, the changes have not moved in one direction nationwide. The Brennan Center said 17 states enacted at least one expansive law and at least one restrictive law during the period.

The center defines restrictive legislation as laws that make it harder for eligible Americans to register, remain on voter rolls or vote under existing state law. Expansive laws make those processes easier.

As a result, voting procedures can differ significantly from one state to another in the same federal election.

7. Congressional district maps moved

The boundaries of congressional districts have shifted in parts of the country since the 2024 election. AP reported that an unusual wave of mid-decade redistricting began after Trump urged the Republican-controlled Texas legislature to redraw its congressional map. California and other states subsequently made changes.

The changes affect millions of voters. AP cited research showing that one in 10 Americans will live in a different congressional district in 2026 than they did in 2024.

For House voters, that can mean a different set of candidates and a different district boundary from the previous election.

The redistricting changes have also faced legal challenges. AP reported that the US Supreme Court issued a ruling that weakened federal Voting Rights Act protections against racially discriminatory redistricting.

8. Mail voting faced new legal fight

Mail voting has also become a major legal issue since the 2024 election. ProPublica reported that the Trump administration sought new rules for mail-in ballots through a March executive order. The proposed requirements faced opposition from state officials, who argued they could not implement them in time for the November 2026 election.

Two federal judges blocked the rule, after which the administration asked the Supreme Court to intervene.

ProPublica reported that the Supreme Court rejected that request in a brief order, with the majority saying the government was “unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge.”

The court did not decide whether the rules could be implemented after the November election.

For the 2026 midterms, states therefore continue to operate under their existing mail-voting systems, meaning requirements remain different across the country.

9. AI entered election security

Artificial intelligence has introduced a new dimension to election security, particularly around ballot privacy.

The Guardian reported on October 2 that Georgia election officials held an emergency meeting after Princeton researcher Max Springer found that publicly available election records could potentially be combined with an AI system to link voters with their ballots.

Springer said he used a $20 AI subscription and information obtained through a public-records request to test the issue.

According to The Guardian, Springer was able to recover the voting order for 1.52 million ballots, or 98.9% of in-person ballots, across 114 of Georgia’s 139 counties.

Georgia officials subsequently discussed measures to protect ballot secrecy.

10. Primary elections produced different candidate landscape

The 2026 primary elections have also shaped the congressional candidate field. Brookings studied 300 candidates in competitive congressional primaries, including 127 Democrats, 119 Republicans and 54 third-party or independent candidates.

In its selected competitive races, Brookings found that mainstream candidates outperformed their ideological wings. The study reported that MAGA/Trump conservatives won 26.7% of their races in the sample, while progressive Democratic candidates won 17.8%.

Brookings cautioned that its sample covered selected competitive races and should not be treated as representative of every primary contest.

The study also found that women accounted for 28% of candidates in its sample and won their primaries at the same rate as men.

Campaign issues have shifted as well. Brookings identified the economy and affordability as leading themes in its review of competitive primaries.

The study found that nearly 56% of Democratic candidates in its sample addressed inflation, while 23.5% of Republican candidates defended the administration’s actions on affordability.

Brookings also identified healthcare and aid to Israel among issues that could create divisions within the Democratic coalition if the party regained control of Congress.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information, polling data, government information, research reports and information from news agencies. Polling results reflect specific populations and time periods and can change before Election Day. Financial Express Digital does not endorse or oppose any political party, candidate or election outcome.