Democratic voters have turned out in unusually large numbers in several US states ahead of the November 3 mid-term elections, giving the party a potential boost as it seeks to gain ground in Congress.
Democratic primary participation has reached its highest level for a mid-term in over 20 years in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Georgia and Texas have also recorded strong turnout. The figures point to high Democratic participation in several states with competitive House, Senate and governor’s races, reported AP.
But primary turnout is not a reliable forecast of the November result. Primary voters have already chosen to participate in a party’s nomination contest, while the general election will attract a much broader electorate, including independents, Republicans and people who did not vote in the primaries.
How high has Democratic turnout been?
Wisconsin recorded nearly 800,000 Democratic primary voters in Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary, with over 790,000 people, about 22% of registered voters, casting ballots. It was the state’s highest Democratic turnout for a midterm primary in more than 20 years, reported AP.
Democrat David Crowley won the primary and will face Republican US Representative Tom Tiffany in November.
Michigan recorded more than 1.5 million voters in its Democratic Senate primary the previous week, representing a little over 18% of registered voters. It was the state’s highest Democratic midterm primary turnout since at least 2002, reported AP.
Republican turnout was about 11% in Michigan’s gubernatorial primary and around 14% in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary, as reported by AP.
What about Georgia and Texas?
Georgia recorded just over 1 million voters in its May Democratic gubernatorial primary, or a little more than 13% of registered voters. It was the state’s highest Democratic midterm primary turnout rate since at least 2002, reported AP.
Texas recorded about 2.3 million Democratic primary voters in March, representing slightly more than 12% of registered voters. That was also the state’s highest Democratic midterm primary turnout rate since at least 2002, reported AP.
Official Georgia election records confirm the May 19 primary. The Georgia Secretary of State also conducted a statewide risk-limiting audit and a separate ballot-image audit after the election.
Why are Democrats turning out in large numbers?
Competitive primary contests appear to be one factor. Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary was particularly expensive and closely watched, with spending topping $80 million, according to AdImpact data cited by AP. Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Representative Haley Stevens.
Wisconsin also had a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary, with Crowley narrowly defeating democratic socialist Francesca Hong.
Political scientist Corwin Smidt of Michigan State University told AP that high turnout is a “good sign for Democrats” but “not a very solid predictor” of November voting behaviour.
Minnesota also recorded Democratic primary participation comparable with its 2018 midterm election, with both years representing the state’s highest Democratic primary turnout in a midterm year so far this century, according to AP report.
Does high primary turnout guarantee a November win?
Primary turnout is best viewed as a measure of mobilisation and enthusiasm, rather than a prediction of the general-election result.
A voter who participated in a Democratic primary may not necessarily vote in November. At the same time, the general election will bring in voters who did not participate in either party’s primary.
Republican turnout also remains significant. In Michigan, Republican gubernatorial primary turnout was about 11%, while Wisconsin’s Republican primary drew roughly 14% of registered voters.
Michigan Republican Party spokesperson Ted Goodman told AP that Republicans could narrow the gap once the general-election contests become clearer.
Can Democrats carry the momentum into November?
That will depend partly on whether Democrats can keep primary voters engaged after competitive nomination battles.
In Michigan, El-Sayed’s victory followed a divisive contest with Stevens. Democrats subsequently moved to present a more united front ahead of November, while El-Sayed said he hoped former President Barack Obama would campaign with him, reported AP.
Democrats may benefit from President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings, persistent inflation and opposition to the war with Iran, reported AP. At the same time, Republicans retain structural advantages created by congressional redistricting.
What does this mean for the House and Senate?
The election on November 3 will determine control of Congress. All 435 House seats are up for election, along with 35 Senate seats.
Republicans currently hold the Senate majority which means Democrats need to make gains to take control of the chamber.
The unusually high Democratic primary turnout in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Texas gives the party evidence that its voters are engaged. But whether that enthusiasm translates into November votes will depend on a much larger electorate, the competitiveness of individual races and the parties’ ability to mobilise voters who did not participate in the primaries.
For now, the primary numbers point towards a Democratic energy, not a November verdict.