Trump’s approval falls to 37% as inflation and Iran conflict weigh on midterm outlook: Report

The Marquette survey found that 37 percent of US adults approved of Trump’s job performance, while 63 percent disapproved. His net approval rating fell to -26, the weakest result of his second term in Marquette polling, according to Newsweek.

The poll, conducted from September 2 to 9 among 1,023 adults nationwide, also found Trump’s approval among self-described “very conservative” Americans fell from 84 percent in July to 76 percent in September. Disapproval among the group rose from 16 percent to 24 percent.

Other national polls show a similar picture. A Fox News survey put Trump’s approval rating at 39 percent, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll put it at 35 percent, Newsweek reported. Both surveys found that a majority of voters disapproved of Trump’s performance.

The Economist’s tracker of YouGov polling puts Trump’s net approval at -25. Its analysis found that Trump’s voters continue to overwhelmingly approve of his performance as president, but dissatisfaction with him is also visible in some states that voted for him in the 2024 presidential election.

The numbers are particularly relevant for Republicans because the midterm elections are approaching with control of both the House and Senate at stake.

Economic concerns weigh on Trump’s standing

Inflation and the cost of living are among the biggest issues affecting voters’ views of the administration. The Marquette survey found inflation and the cost of living were the country’s top concerns, cited by 37 percent of respondents. Newsweek reported that many Americans continue to say they are paying more for groceries and gasoline than they did earlier in the year.

The Economist also pointed to high inflation and tariffs as factors that have affected Trump’s standing with voters. Trump’s promise that “inflation will vanish completely” has not been matched by the economic conditions voters are experiencing, according to the publication.

The issue is significant because Republicans had expected the midterm campaign to focus heavily on immigration, border security and public safety, areas where the party has traditionally performed strongly. Instead, pocketbook concerns have become a central part of the political conversation.

The Iran war has added another complication. A recent Fox News poll found a majority of voters believed US military action against Iran was the wrong decision, while nearly three-quarters said the administration lacked a clear plan for ending the conflict, according to Newsweek. The findings suggest that Trump’s foreign policy decisions are also contributing to dissatisfaction among voters, even though foreign policy ranks below economic concerns for many Americans.

Trump has continued to defend his approach to Iran. In May, when asked whether voters’ economic concerns would affect his decision-making, he said: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon, that’s all. That’s the only thing that motivates me.”

At a rally in North Carolina on Wednesday, Trump acknowledged that Americans were paying higher gas prices because of the war but argued that the cost was justified. “It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” he said.

Independents are another concern

Trump’s standing among independent voters has also weakened. An August I&I/TIPP national survey found Trump’s approval among independents fell from 29 percent to 26 percent, while disapproval rose from 59 percent to 61 percent, Newsweek reported. The movement among independents is significant because dissatisfaction with Trump does not necessarily mean voters will automatically support Democrats. The bigger question for Republicans is whether lower approval could affect turnout among voters who supported the party previously but are now less enthusiastic.

Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that disapproval should not automatically be interpreted as a decision to vote for the opposing party. “Voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval,” Reeher told Newsweek. “But it suggests more about potential turnout effects than vote choice. And in a midterm, that’s really important.”

Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, has similarly pointed to the importance of turnout. He said Trump’s approval rating has created an environment in which Democrats have opportunities in places where they would not normally be competitive.

“The president’s poor job approval rating has laid the foundation for Democrats to win in states where they normally don’t have any business competing,” Gonzales told Newsweek.

Approval is weakening beyond Trump’s core base

The Marquette poll’s findings among very conservative voters have drawn attention because Trump’s strongest support has traditionally come from the Republican base. Approval among self-described very conservative Americans dropped eight percentage points between July and September, from 84 percent to 76 percent. The share disapproving of Trump rose from 16 percent to 24 percent during the same period.

Political scientists told Newsweek that the subgroup findings should be interpreted cautiously because of the relatively small sample size. They nevertheless suggested that the movement could reflect broader frustrations over inflation, the economy and the Iran war.

The Economist’s analysis of YouGov data also showed differences across demographic groups. White and male voters were among the groups most likely to approve of Trump’s job performance, while younger voters and members of ethnic minorities were among the groups most strongly disapproving. People with college and postgraduate education were also less likely to support Trump.

The publication noted that voters of pension age, normally a solidly Republican bloc, were also relatively lukewarm on the president.

The Economist has also projected Trump’s approval rating state by state using YouGov data. Its analysis found that approval was lowest in states that tend to vote Democratic and highest in Republican-leaning states, while dissatisfaction was still present in some states Trump won in 2024.

Why the numbers matter for the midterms

Trump’s approval ratings do not by themselves determine the outcome of the midterms. Candidate quality, turnout, fundraising and local issues will also influence individual House and Senate races.Still, presidential approval can shape the broader political environment for the president’s party.

Midterm elections are often viewed as a referendum on the party occupying the White House. Republicans are therefore hoping that concerns over immigration, crime and national security will outweigh dissatisfaction with Trump. Democrats are seeking to make the election about inflation, gasoline prices and the administration’s handling of the Iran war.

Gonzales told Newsweek that an unpopular president can create a difficult environment for his party.”Any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party,” Gonzales said.Trump has also directly linked himself to the Republican campaign. At the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month, he urged supporters to behave as though he were personally on the ballot.

“Pretend that I’m on the ballot. I’m on the ballot, just one more time,” Trump told the crowd. That approach could help Republicans energise voters who remain strongly supportive of the president. The party continues to argue that Trump’s political strengths, particularly on immigration and border security, can offset concerns about his overall approval rating.

Natalie Baldassarre, the Republican National Committee’s national press secretary, told Newsweek that Trump “energizes Republican voters like no one else.”

“President Trump cut taxes, lowered prescription drug costs, and secured our border, and he energizes Republican voters like no one else,” Baldassarre said.

The White House has also rejected concerns that Trump’s polling numbers reflect the full impact of his agenda. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle previously told Newsweek: “No other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.”

Ingle said Trump’s agenda was still taking effect and that the administration had made “historic progress” domestically and internationally.

What to watch before November

For Republicans, the question in the final weeks may be less about whether Trump’s approval rating moves by a few points and more about whether his supporters remain motivated to vote.

A president can have low approval while maintaining a strong base. Trump’s 2024 victory demonstrated the importance of that support, as his supporters remained loyal at the ballot box despite years of unfavourable approval ratings.

Political scientists have also cautioned that presidential disapproval does not automatically translate into votes for the opposing party.

The central issue for Republicans is therefore whether dissatisfaction over inflation, the economy and foreign policy reduces turnout among Republican voters or weakens support among independents.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that dissatisfaction with Trump becomes a broader judgment on the Republican Party.

With 45 days remaining before the midterm elections, Trump’s approval ratings provide one measure of the political environment facing Republicans. The latest national polls show him underwater with voters, while the decline in approval among independents and very conservative voters has added another layer to the party’s concerns.

The numbers alone will not determine control of Congress. They will, however, remain closely watched as both parties enter the final stretch of the campaign.