Texas Senate race turns into a money battle: Why this seat matters for Trump’s GOP

The contest has also become a test of how much money Republicans can bring into a race that the party once expected to be relatively safe. Talarico has built a large fundraising advantage, while Republican groups have started to increase their spending on Paxton.

The stakes are high for US President Donald Trump‘s Republican Party. Trump backed Paxton during the Republican primary, where Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a May 26 runoff. That result turned what Republicans had expected to be a safer Senate seat into a competitive general election race, according to The Associated Press report.

The money gap has now become a central part of the contest. The Federal Election Commission data show that Talarico’s campaign raised about $68.6 million between September 8, 2025, and June 30, 2026. It spent about $47 million during that period and had about $21.5 million in cash on hand at the end of June.

Talarico had nearly $22 million in cash compared with almost $2 million for Paxton, based on FEC filings, reported US-based media outlet on August 21. It also reported that Talarico had out-raised Paxton by about seven to one.

For Republicans, the question is no longer only whether Paxton can win Texas. It is also whether the party’s national political network will put enough money behind him to protect a seat that Republicans have held for decades.

Why has the Texas race become so competitive?

The latest public polling shows why both parties are paying attention. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,048 likely voters, conducted from July 15 to July 17, put Talarico ahead of Paxton by 45% to 40%. The poll had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

The poll also showed Talarico with an unusual advantage among voters without a college degree. He led Paxton 45% to 36% among that group. That finding stood out because non-college-educated voters have generally favoured Republicans in recent Texas elections.

Talarico also held a substantial advantage among independent voters. The poll put him at 43% among independents, compared with 23% for Paxton. Among moderate voters, Talarico led 54% to 20%.

Paxton still had strong support among white voters. He led Talarico 53% to 33% in that group. Talarico had a much wider advantage among Black and Latino voters. The poll put his support at 71% among Black voters and 66% among Latino voters, compared with 8% and 20% for Paxton respectively.

The poll also showed that the race remained unsettled. Fourteen percent of voters said they were unsure about their choice. Among those voters, 19% leaned towards Paxton and 10% leaned towards Talarico, while two-thirds said they were still genuinely undecided.

Some conservatives questioned the polls’ findings because TPOR is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford. The Texas Tribune also reported that Warford is a founding partner of a Democratic political action committee and that one of its donors gave $500,000 to a pro-Talarico super PAC.

Other polling has produced a different picture. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in June showed the race tied at 47% each. The Texas Tribune also reported that other surveys had shown Republicans consolidating behind Paxton.

The Cook Political Report had rated the contest “Lean Republican” at the time of the Texas Tribune’s July 28 report. By August 21, Axios reported that Cook had moved the race to “toss-up.” That change has increased pressure on Republican groups to spend money in the state.

Where is Republican money coming from?

Republican groups have begun to put more resources behind Paxton. A super PAC linked to Republican Senator Ted Cruz planned to spend more than $1.7 million on advertising for Paxton, reported Axios. The money was earmarked for broadcast television and Fox News in Houston, as well as college football advertising in Dallas and Houston.

The advertisements focused on Chinese purchases of Texas farmland and attacked Talarico over his opposition to legislation that would ban such purchases. One advertisement used the line, “Communist China is buying up Texas.”

The intervention came as Talarico held a significant cash advantage.

Neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor the Senate Leadership Fund, the major Senate Republican super PAC, had reserved advertising in Texas after the May primary, reported Axios. Both organisations had supported Cornyn during the Republican primary, which Paxton won.

Republican officials told Axios that Paxton could eventually receive support from the Republican National Committee and Trump’s political operation, including MAGA Inc. But as of the August 21 report, the amount and timing of that spending remained unclear.

That uncertainty has become more important as the election approaches.

MAGA Inc. had more than $403 million in its war chest as of July but had spent relatively little, reported AP. The group had made one major investment in South Carolina, while Republicans in other competitive states were waiting for Trump’s political operation to deploy more money.

Texas had become a concern for Republicans after Trump helped Paxton defeat Cornyn, reported AP. The party had once treated the seat as safer, but Talarico’s fundraising advantage has made the contest more competitive.

Trump and his team have indicated that more spending will come, according to AP report. But some Republican officials and strategists have expressed concern that waiting too long could make it harder and more expensive to secure advertising space.

Why does Texas seat matter to Trump?

The Texas contest matters because of the state’s political history and because Republicans want to protect their Senate position. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades. That record has made Texas a long-standing Republican stronghold.

But the current Senate contest has already produced signs of a closer race.

The Texas Tribune reported on July 28 that Democrats believe they have an opportunity because of Trump’s approval ratings, Paxton’s political baggage and Talarico’s fundraising and populist campaign message. Republicans, however, expect their voters to unite behind Paxton as the primary fight fades and the general election campaign focuses more heavily on Talarico’s progressive positions.

Trump’s role makes the contest particularly significant for the Republican Party. He backed Paxton in the Republican primary against Cornyn. Paxton then defeated Cornyn in the May 26 runoff.

That primary victory changed the nature of the general election. Republicans now have to defend a nominee who faces a Democrat with a substantial fundraising operation.

For Trump, the issue extends beyond Paxton himself. A Republican defeat in Texas would give Democrats a major statewide victory in one of the country’s most important Republican states.

The money available to national Republican groups gives them the ability to respond. The question is how much of that money they decide to use in Texas and how early they deploy it.

Republicans in several battlegrounds were frustrated by Trump’s reluctance to spend more from MAGA Inc.’s large reserves, reported AP.

The Texas race offers a clear example of that tension. Republicans have a candidate who needs additional financial support, while the Democratic nominee has already accumulated a large campaign war chest.

Talarico’s FEC filings provide the scale of the Democratic operation. Between September 2025 and June 2026, his campaign received $65.9 million in contributions and spent $47 million. Individual contributions accounted for about $65.6 million of his total contributions. He entered July with more than $21.5 million in cash on hand, according to the FEC.

The Republican side has started to respond through outside groups. The $1.7 million Cruz-linked super PAC advertising campaign is one example.

But the campaign finance figures do not by themselves determine the outcome. Polling, voter turnout, candidate messages and the national political environment will also shape the race.

The Texas Tribune reported that the state’s governor and attorney general races also remained close in its July poll. Republican Governor Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa 45% to 42%, while Republican Mayes Middleton led Democrat Nathan Johnson 39% to 38% in the attorney general contest.

For now, the Texas Senate race has become a contest of both votes and dollars. Talarico has built a large financial base. Paxton has the Republican Party’s established statewide strength and access to national Republican donors and political groups.

The next stage will show how much of Trump’s political war chest reaches Texas and whether Republican groups can close the financial gap before voters cast their ballots.

The election will take place on November 3. Early voting is scheduled to begin on October 19.

For Trump’s GOP, Texas remains a state Republicans expect to hold. But the amount of money now flowing into the race shows that the party cannot treat the Senate seat as uncontested.