As Americans head toward the 2026 midterm elections, Social Security and Medicare are emerging as important issues for voters concerned about retirement income, healthcare costs and the long-term finances of both programmes.
Social Security provides monthly benefits to retired workers, people with disabilities and survivors. Medicare provides health coverage mainly to Americans aged 65 and older, along with some younger people with certain disabilities or medical conditions.
Both programmes face long-term financing challenges. However, the latest federal projections do not mean that benefits will suddenly stop on a particular date. The 2026 Social Security and Medicare Trustees reports provide the latest estimates.
The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, or OASI, trust fund is projected to pay full scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032. After that, continuing programme income would cover about 78% of scheduled OASI benefits.
If Social Security’s retirement and disability trust funds are considered together, reserves are projected to last until the third quarter of 2034, after which continuing income would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits.
Medicare’s Hospital Insurance, or HI, trust fund is projected to pay full scheduled Part A benefits until the second quarter of 2033. After that, programme income would cover about 89% of scheduled Part A benefits.
These dates represent projected trust-fund reserve depletion under current law. They are not dates when Social Security or Medicare would disappear.
Why are Social Security and Medicare important?
The programmes affect both current beneficiaries and workers who expect to rely on them in retirement.
Social Security provides a regular source of income for retirees, while Medicare helps cover healthcare costs after age 65. For many households, changes to either programme can have a direct impact on monthly finances.
A recent AARP survey of 800 likely voters aged 50 and older in Alaska, conducted September 8-11, found that 78% considered Social Security extremely or very important when deciding how to vote. Medicare was cited by 70%, while healthcare costs reached 74%.
The findings are specific to Alaska and cannot be treated as a national measure of voter opinion. But they illustrate how strongly retirement and healthcare issues can resonate with older voters in at least one 2026 battleground state.
The issue also extends to younger workers. They pay into Social Security during their working years and may be concerned about whether the programme will remain financially sustainable by the time they retire.
That creates two different timelines in the election debate:
- Current beneficiaries: monthly income, healthcare costs and benefit protection.
- Younger workers: future benefits, taxes and the long-term financial sustainability of the programmes.
Meanwhile, household costs remain an immediate concern.
Reuters reported on September 25 that cost of living was the biggest concern for roughly half of voters in its Reuters/Ipsos polling on the 2026 congressional elections. That makes Medicare and Social Security not just federal budget issues, but household-finance issues as well.
What is actually at risk?
The biggest misconception is that trust-fund depletion means benefits will end. It does not.
Social Security would continue to collect payroll taxes and other programme income after the projected depletion of its reserves. The problem is that those revenues would not be enough to pay 100% of benefits scheduled under current law.
For OASI, the Trustees project that continuing income would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits after reserves are depleted in 2032.
Using the combined Social Security trust funds for analytical purposes, continuing income would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits after projected depletion in 2034.
Medicare’s projection applies specifically to the Hospital Insurance trust fund, which finances Part A. The Trustees project that its reserves will be depleted in 2033, after which continuing income would cover about 89% of scheduled Part A benefits.
That does not mean every part of Medicare would stop paying claims. Medicare Part B and Part D have different financing arrangements. Part B covers doctors’ services and outpatient care, while Part D covers prescription drugs.
Statements that “Medicare will run out of money” can obscure what the Trustees’ projection actually measures. The underlying issue for both programmes is the same – under current law, projected programme income eventually falls short of scheduled benefits. Congress would need to decide how to address that gap.
How much do Medicare costs matter to voters now?
The long-term financing outlook is only one part of the Medicare debate. Beneficiaries are also dealing with current premiums and deductibles.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said the standard Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, up from $185 in 2025. The annual Part B deductible increased to $283, from $257.
The 2026 Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible is $1,736, compared with $1,676 in 2025. About 99% of Medicare beneficiaries do not pay a Part A premium because they or their spouse have at least 40 quarters of Medicare-covered employment.
Medicare costs can also vary depending on income, plan selection and healthcare needs. Higher-income beneficiaries pay additional income-related amounts for Part B and Part D. CMS says these adjustments affect about 8% of people with Medicare Part B.
That means Medicare’s role in the election debate extends beyond its long-term finances.
For beneficiaries, issues can include:
- Monthly premiums
- Deductibles and out-of-pocket costs
- Prescription-drug expenses
- Provider access
- Medicare Advantage plans
- Original Medicare coverage
These are issues voters can experience in their household budgets immediately.
Why does Social Security matter to younger voters?
The Social Security financing problem has a longer timeline, but it is directly relevant to younger workers. The 2026 Trustees report projects that the combined Social Security trust funds will have enough reserves to pay full scheduled benefits until 2034 under its intermediate assumptions.
After that, continuing programme income would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits.
That does not mean today’s younger workers should assume they will receive only 83% of their future benefits. The figure represents what current-law programme income could finance at the projected point of reserve depletion if no changes were made.
Congress could change the programme before then, while economic and demographic conditions could also differ from the Trustees’ assumptions.
The broader challenge comes from Social Security’s financing structure. Payroll taxes from current workers are a major source of funding for benefits paid to current recipients. As the population ages, the relationship between workers and beneficiaries becomes increasingly important to the programme’s finances.
That leaves lawmakers with broad choices involving revenue, benefits or both. Changes introduced gradually could affect workers differently from measures adopted closer to the projected depletion dates.
What do the 2026 midterms have to do with it?
The midterm elections will determine the members of Congress who will participate in future legislation on Social Security, Medicare and the wider federal budget. That does not mean the election itself will decide the future of either programme.
Instead, voters are choosing lawmakers who may later debate and vote on changes to their financing and benefits.
For voters, therefore, campaign promises need to be examined alongside the details of the proposed policies. A candidate who says they want to “protect Social Security”, for example, may still need to explain how they would address the projected financing gap.
Similarly, a promise to “protect Medicare” does not necessarily specify whether the proposal involves premiums, eligibility, provider payments, prescription drugs or other aspects of the programme.
What should voters watch for?
The 2026 Trustees reports give voters two important dates under current law:
Social Security: The combined trust funds are projected to pay full scheduled benefits until 2034, after which continuing income would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits.
Medicare Part A: The Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to pay full scheduled benefits until 2033, after which continuing income would cover about 89% of scheduled Part A benefits.
Neither date represents an automatic end to benefits. Instead, they identify points at which projected programme income would no longer be sufficient to pay all benefits scheduled under current law without further changes.
For older voters, the debate can centre on retirement income, Medicare coverage and healthcare costs.
For younger workers, it can involve future benefits, taxes and the long-term sustainability of the programmes.
For Congress, the challenge is how to close the projected financing gaps and determine how the costs and benefits of any changes would be distributed.
The 2026 midterms will not by themselves resolve the future of Social Security or Medicare. But the lawmakers elected in November will have a role in the decisions that shape both programmes in the years ahead.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not endorse or oppose any political party, candidate or policy position. Future legislation, economic conditions, demographics and other factors could change these projections. Financial Express does not endorse or oppose any political party, candidate, campaign or policy position.