President Donald Trump has warned that if the US Supreme Court strikes down his global trade tariffs, it would be “a complete mess” for the country. Writing on social media, Trump said, “We are screwed” if the court rules against his tariff plan. The decision is expected as soon as Wednesday and is seen as a major legal test of his economic strategy.
Trump added that undoing the tariffs could take years because businesses and countries might demand refunds. “It would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay. It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the Supreme Court will probably not rule in favour of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Traders say Supreme Court unlikely to back Trump’s tariffs
On Kalshi, the chance of the court siding with Trump is just under 32%, down 14 points after oral arguments in November suggested the justices might be sceptical. Traders have wagered over $3 million on this market.
Polymarket shows a similar trend, with odds at 28%, down 9 points over the same period. The trading volume there is slightly above $2.4 million. Both Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on politics, sports, and pop culture, turning public opinion into market odds.
The Supreme Court is expected to release a ruling this week. The decision is being watched closely as tariff revenue has soared since Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April.
Monthly collections jumped from $23.9 billion in May to $31.6 billion in September. Total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $215.2 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s report on Customs and Certain Excise Taxes. The momentum has continued into the new fiscal year, with $99.5 billion collected since October 1.
President Trump has made tariff revenue a major part of his economic plan, saying it could fund $2,000 checks for Americans and help lower the nation’s $38 trillion debt.
Supreme Court shows scepticism
In November, justices appeared skeptical about Trump’s authority to impose the tariffs, questioning whether the president had legal grounds for imposing these global measures. The tariffs, announced last April, are being challenged by small businesses and 12 US states, who argue that Trump overstepped his authority on goods imports.
Before reaching the Supreme Court, two lower courts ruled that Trump did not have the power to impose these global tariffs. Trump justified his action based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, a law that lets the president regulate international transactions during a national emergency.
The states suing the Trump administration include Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Vermont, alongside several small businesses.