India is ranked as the second-largest contributor to global economic expansion in 2026, trailing only China. In its latest forecast data, the IMF said that together, India and China are projected to drive 43.6% of global growth in 2026. Just last year, India surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP.

While the US remains a larger economy by total size, India’s faster growth rate (6.2 to 7.3 percent depending on the sector) allows it to add more to the global total than any nation other than China. And now, the world’s richest man believes the global economy is entering a new phase.

‘The balance of power is changing, Says Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who often keeps a close eye on global developments and regularly shares his own comments and perspective, posted the data for his millions of followers on X, summing it up in four words: “The balance of power is changing.” The list places India ahead of the United States in contributions to global economic growth for 2026.

The data shows that China and India together are expected to contribute nearly 44% of global real GDP growth, a clear sign that economic momentum is shifting east.

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China and India lead the global growth chart

At the very top of the list sits China, which is projected to contribute 26.6% of global real GDP growth in 2026. India follows closely with a 17% share. The United States, which for decades acted as the main engine of global growth, ranks third. Its projected contribution stands at 9.9%, less than a quarter of what China and India contribute together.

Having said that, Europe’s picture looks even weaker. Germany, the largest economy in the region, appears at the bottom of the top ten list with a contribution of just 0.9%.

Most importantly, beyond China and India, several other emerging and middle-income economies are also playing an important role. Indonesia is expected to add 3.8% to global growth, followed by Türkiye at 2.2% and Vietnam at 1.6%. Brazil and Nigeria are each projected to contribute around 1.5%, while Saudi Arabia is set to add 1.7%.

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Taken as a whole, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to generate roughly half of global economic growth in 2026.

India’s rise is not just about having a large population. In 2025, infrastructure spending jumped sharply. Manufacturing output picked up speed even when global trade slowed. Consumer demand stayed strong, despite inflation hovering close to the target range.

According to IMF, India’s growth is being driven largely by domestic strength, not by exports alone. That matters, because economies built on internal demand tend to be more stable during global downturns.

The IMF measures each country’s contribution to global growth using purchasing power parity, or PPP. This method adjusts for differences in local prices, allowing faster-growing emerging economies to have a more accurate and fair impact on the global picture.

Overall, the IMF expects global growth in 2026 to be powered largely by countries that are still in earlier stages of economic development.

Population growth, a larger working-age population, rising consumption, and increased government spending are expected to remain key forces supporting economic expansion, even when growth in advanced economies continues to slow.