Almost a month into a war that has rattled global energy markets, sent oil past $120 a barrel, and left over 1,500 Iranians dead, the US and Iran can’t even agree on whether they’re talking to each other.

Now, President Donald Trump claims negotiations with a senior Iranian official have produced “major points of agreement.” Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, widely believed to be the official Trump referenced, has flatly denied it, calling the claims “fake news” designed to manipulate financial and oil markets.

So who’s telling the truth? Possibly neither. And that’s exactly the point.

The Market Game Both Sides Are Playing

Trump’s comments about progress were made just as US stock markets opened for the week on Monday. His comments swung oil prices and sent US stock markets surging up. Critics have noted the pattern, over the past two weeks, without much proof Trump has been orchestrating the stock movements by his social media posts. In the process some dodgy deals were made with an insider profiting $580 million ahead of the announcement was made.

“They (Iran) gave us a present, and the present arrived today. It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.”

“It was a very significant prize”, Trump told reporters, adding that it was related to oil and gas.

For Iran, the incentive runs in the opposite direction. Tehran benefits from economic chaos. Higher oil prices punish American consumers at the pump and erode political support for the war ahead of US congressional elections. Denying negotiations keeps pressure on Washington and removes any breathing room for the Trump administration.

“No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Ghalibaf wrote on social media.

In short, Trump wants calm markets. Iran wants panicked ones. Both are using the narrative of negotiations, or the absence of them, as a weapon.

A War That Surprised Its Own Architects

Trump himself admitted last week that the scale of the conflict caught him off guard. Iran’s decision to expand the war across the Gulf and into the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a fifth of global oil and gas supply, was not part of the script.

“They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries,” Trump said, adding that even “the greatest experts” hadn’t predicted it. In reality, US intelligence officials had warned of exactly this outcome.

Now Washington is scrambling. Trump has issued temporary sanctions waivers on Iranian oil for the first time since 2019 — a quiet concession that Iran views as validation of its strategy.

Why Iran May Not Want This to End

From Tehran’s perspective, the war has shifted the calculus. Iran has demonstrated it can inflict serious economic damage on the US and its allies, only because of its control over Strait of Hormuz. Hardliners within the Iranian leadership now argue that stopping would allow Israel to replenish its interceptor stocks and prepare for another strike.

The logic is cold but simple: the longer the war drags on, the stronger Iran’s deterrent becomes.

But the cost is mounting. Infrastructure is damaged, civilian casualties are climbing, and relationships with Gulf neighbours may never recover. More moderate Iranian voices are pushing back, arguing that enough deterrence has been established and that now is the time to negotiate — especially if concessions like greater authority over the Strait of Hormuz are on the table.

Where This War Goes Next

The uncomfortable truth is that both sides have reasons to keep fighting and reasons to stop. Trump faces a war that’s politically toxic at home. Iran faces destruction that could become irreversible. The question isn’t whether negotiations will happen — it’s whether either side can afford to admit it.