As Sri Lanka prepares for its presidential election on September 21, 2024, the island nation stands at a critical juncture. The election comes nearly two years after a severe economic crisis led to widespread public unrest and the dramatic departure of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The new president will face the daunting tasks of addressing ongoing economic hardships and navigating complex international relations, particularly with China.
Amidst economic instability and political discontent, almost 1.70 crore voters will choose from 39 candidates. However, the primary contenders for the presidency are incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
Ranil Wickremesinghe: The Incumbent’s Challenge
Ranil Wickremesinghe, who climbed to the presidency following Rajapaksa’s ousting in 2022, has faced significant hurdles during his tenure. His administration has faced high inflation and widespread poverty, despite efforts to stabilize the economy with international assistance, including support from the IMF and India. Wickremesinghe’s administration took steps to reduce China’s influence by banning Chinese military vessels, thereby strengthening ties with India. However, his tenure is overshadowed by a legacy of economic struggle and public dissatisfaction.
Wickremesinghe’s re-election campaign is marked by his efforts to demonstrate economic recovery. There have been improvements in food security, tourism, and remittances. Yet, scepticism remains about his ability to fully resolve Sri Lanka’s deep-seated economic issues. Some voters are inclined to support a change, hoping for a new approach to governance.
Sajith Premadasa: A Legacy of Reform
Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, presents himself as a reformist alternative. Premadasa has garnered significant support, reflecting a public desire for change. His platform includes abolishing the presidential system in favour of a parliamentary model, a move he argues will lead to more effective governance.
Premadasa’s campaign also focuses on alleviating the economic burden on the working class and providing a clear break from the politico-family dynasties that have dominated Sri Lankan politics. Despite his family’s political legacy, Premadasa has sought to distance himself from past controversies and present a vision for a more equitable economic policy.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake: The Leftist Contender
Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the JVP has emerged as a formidable candidate. His party’s historical ties to leftist ideologies and its previous militant activities contrast sharply with its current democratic approach. Dissanayake’s campaign emphasizes a shift away from the presidential system and promises significant changes, including removing VAT on essential goods and revising ethnic identity labels.
Dissanayake’s association with China, and his vow to cancel Adani’s wind power project, signals a potential pivot in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy if he is elected. This stance resonates with voters who favour stronger ties with China and a critical reassessment of ongoing projects and foreign investments.
Namal Rajapaksa: The Remote Contender
Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and candidate from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), is considered a long-shot in this election. His candidacy is viewed as an extension of the Rajapaksa family’s political influence, which has faced significant criticism. Despite his efforts to leverage the Rajapaksa legacy, Rajapaksa’s chances appear slim, with many viewing him as a continuation of the problematic past rather than a solution to current issues.
Geopolitical Implications
According to experts, “Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean has attracted substantial interest from global powers, particularly China. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and extensive Chinese loans have placed Sri Lanka in a difficult position, with China holding a significant share of the nation’s foreign debt. The Hambantota Port lease and other Chinese investments have sparked concerns about sovereignty and economic independence.”
India’s role has been crucial in providing financial aid and maintaining regional stability. The recent geopolitical manoeuvres, including India’s diplomatic efforts to limit Chinese naval access, underscore the broader implications of Sri Lanka’s internal politics on international relations.
Looking Ahead
As Sri Lanka heads to the polls, the choice between continuity and change, economic reform, and strategic realignment will shape the nation’s future. With no clear frontrunner, the election’s outcome will depend on how voters weigh the promises of economic recovery and political reform against the backdrop of Sri Lanka’s complex domestic and international challenges. The results on September 22 will determine not only the next president but also the direction Sri Lanka will take in addressing its deep-rooted issues and navigating its place in the global arena.