Sanction-hit Iran has exported about 13.7 mn barrels of crude oil since Israel-US attacks – Who buys from Tehran? 

The Iran war continued to escalate this week — with ships burning in the Persian Gulf and thousands dead across the Middle East. Oil prices have skyrocketed and a shortage of consumer goods appears imminent as Tehran maintains its virtual blockade of the key waterway. But as multiple Gulf nations see their export pipelines run dry, Iranian oil has flowed steadily through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a Reuters report, Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil since Israel and the US launched attacks on the country on February 28. The data comes from a maritime intelligence company called TankerTrackers.comthat specialises in tracking the so-called shadow fleet — a network of vessels used to transport oil and gas from countries under Western ⁠sanctions. Vessel ​tracking service Kpler pegged Iranian exports in the first 11 days of March even higher at about 16.5 million barrels. 

This oil will likely go to China — the overwhelming and primary buyer of Iranian oil in early 2026. Analysis ⁠from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence indicates that six crude oil tankers have left the country since February 28. This includes the US-sanctioned Cuma which sailed this week and two similarly sanctioned liquefied petroleum gas tankers that departed on Friday after loading its cargo. A separate analysis showed that at least 11 million barrels of crude oil have been shipped out of Iran — with four supertankers that left Iran carrying 8 million ‌barrels arriving in waters ⁠around Singapore.

Six vessels attacked within hours

Explosive-laden Iranian boats appeared to attack six ships and oil tankers in a matter of hours — with at least one crew member killed on Wednesday. Iranian projectiles have now struck at least 16 vessels in Gulf waters. Iran has a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway leading from the Persian Gulf toward the Indian Ocean through which a fifth of the world’s oil is transported.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have said they will not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East to the US, Israel or their partners if the country continues to face attacks. Meanwhile Trump warned that Washington would strike ⁠Iran harder ​if it blocked oil exports and urged oil companies to use the strait because “just about all of (Iran’s) navy is gone.”

He had earlier claimed that the US was prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed. But sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that the American Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran — saying the risk of attacks is too high for now.

Why are ships identifying as Chinese in the area?

Some commercial ships near or in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf have declared themselves as China-linked since the Iran war began, marine traffic data show, as their operators apparently try to reduce risks of being targeted in attacks. Tehran and affiliated groups have generally avoided targeting ships linked to China — given the country’s relatively neutral stance and stronger economic ties with Iran.

At least eight vessels in or near the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman changed their declared destination signals to short messages such as “CHINA OWNER” or “CHINA OWNER & CREW,” according to data on the ship tracking platform MarineTraffic analysed by The Associated Press.